***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2018.-24.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 5.8 15.9 17.7 99.1 62.0 46.3 5.4 10.7 18.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 6.3 17.7 14.4 94.9 60.4 44.5 6.3 12.3 21.3 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 7.0 17.0 15.1 88.7 57.6 43.9 6.8 13.2 22.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.8 19.2 18.1 119.6 69.5 53.8 3.8 9.0 16.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 16.3 20.3 17.4 106.7 65.1 52.3 4.3 10.7 21.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.4 15.3 18.2 108.1 65.3 53.6 4.2 8.9 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 6.1 15.7 13.8 90.1 58.6 44.5 5.1 11.1 20.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 7.0 19.0 15.5 93.6 59.7 49.0 5.7 12.7 24.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 5.5 15.2 17.6 102.0 62.9 50.5 4.7 9.7 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 7.1 16.4 16.0 88.6 57.4 46.7 6.1 12.7 22.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 12.9 14.9 17.1 101.6 62.2 51.1 4.0 9.0 17.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.7 12.2 15.3 100.6 62.1 52.0 3.8 7.9 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.7 12.8 16.8 104.1 64.0 52.3 3.5 7.6 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 19.1 17.0 17.8 86.6 55.8 45.3 7.0 14.0 23.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.5 10.7 13.8 106.6 65.4 49.4 2.3 5.5 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.2 13.0 17.0 109.0 65.6 53.9 3.3 7.2 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 5.6 13.1 13.1 86.3 56.7 41.5 5.4 10.5 17.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.0 13.5 18.9 94.4 59.9 51.4 4.2 9.2 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 5.8 16.9 14.7 94.5 60.8 45.1 5.5 11.5 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 12.1 14.0 19.4 101.7 62.8 54.5 5.2 9.5 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 5.4 16.8 17.3 99.9 62.4 45.6 5.5 10.9 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 5.4 14.6 14.0 88.9 58.8 42.6 5.3 10.7 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 7.2 16.2 15.2 92.2 59.9 47.2 6.6 12.1 19.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 19.7 20.5 17.7 93.7 59.8 50.0 7.4 14.6 25.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 14.4 14.7 18.9 93.7 59.6 45.2 5.8 11.0 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 12.7 13.8 14.0 98.8 61.9 52.1 4.9 9.4 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 7.8 17.2 18.7 93.3 59.3 43.7 7.2 13.0 20.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.6 11.6 15.9 117.1 68.9 53.2 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 18.3 19.0 19.5 94.0 59.0 51.7 7.0 13.8 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 5.4 14.2 14.4 91.4 58.5 43.2 5.5 10.7 18.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------