***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2018.-01.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 4.9 11.3 12.0 76.7 56.3 38.9 5.2 9.4 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 6.9 12.7 9.7 69.9 52.9 36.3 7.5 11.9 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 5.7 12.3 11.6 77.0 56.9 39.6 6.1 10.3 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 5.6 14.2 13.5 102.6 65.5 43.1 5.4 9.3 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 4.1 12.7 12.7 97.6 64.4 42.4 4.0 7.8 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.1 8.7 14.9 98.3 63.9 47.0 2.7 5.4 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 4.8 9.1 9.6 68.9 51.9 36.9 4.9 8.7 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 8.0 22.8 13.4 99.0 64.3 46.4 7.5 14.3 24.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.8 10.5 12.7 87.5 61.1 42.8 3.8 7.3 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 5.5 13.4 13.1 83.6 58.9 41.5 5.5 10.3 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 3.3 11.4 11.4 100.0 65.3 42.2 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.6 14.8 12.7 109.6 67.9 48.3 4.3 8.3 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 6.2 7.4 12.9 100.5 65.5 45.4 2.8 4.8 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 7.6 17.8 15.3 83.2 58.0 41.4 8.0 14.2 22.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.4 9.3 10.1 92.3 63.1 40.9 2.3 5.4 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.7 8.6 13.1 107.6 67.5 45.6 2.3 4.8 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 4.3 8.6 8.5 62.2 49.3 35.5 4.4 8.9 15.3 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 7.4 16.4 15.6 84.0 58.5 44.9 6.7 12.7 20.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 4.6 10.8 9.9 70.8 53.8 35.9 4.8 9.5 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 15.8 17.1 15.5 94.4 62.3 48.8 7.3 12.3 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 6.0 13.9 12.3 81.7 59.4 38.6 6.8 11.1 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 5.1 10.3 9.5 68.5 52.2 36.6 5.4 9.6 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 5.9 13.9 11.1 78.0 56.8 38.1 6.1 11.2 18.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 11.4 23.1 14.5 86.0 59.6 44.0 11.4 18.3 27.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 5.3 12.6 13.7 85.1 59.5 39.8 5.8 9.8 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 2.0 7.9 10.4 100.1 65.4 43.6 2.0 4.4 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 5.5 13.0 13.0 78.6 56.7 39.7 6.0 10.7 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 3.2 8.9 12.3 99.2 65.0 42.8 3.1 5.6 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.8 23.3 16.5 90.5 60.5 46.9 9.3 16.8 27.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 6.7 13.5 10.2 72.2 53.6 36.8 7.2 12.2 18.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------