***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2018.-08.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 5.1 14.7 11.7 92.9 62.9 46.6 4.8 9.4 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 4.3 12.1 9.9 88.3 61.3 41.1 4.7 8.6 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 5.2 14.1 11.5 92.6 62.9 45.7 5.4 9.7 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 3.8 13.2 13.0 112.9 68.8 46.5 3.6 7.2 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.6 11.7 12.2 110.7 68.3 49.0 3.5 6.6 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 3.1 13.0 16.0 129.8 73.0 47.9 2.9 5.9 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 6.1 15.3 10.2 87.9 61.2 42.5 6.1 11.0 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 8.4 22.2 14.3 113.4 68.2 50.5 8.3 13.9 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.1 11.4 12.7 102.9 65.8 50.7 3.0 6.3 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 6.6 18.9 14.7 102.9 65.0 49.4 6.0 11.5 19.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.8 11.7 11.4 117.9 70.1 47.4 3.6 6.5 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.8 14.8 12.0 121.0 70.8 49.1 4.7 8.2 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.6 11.8 13.2 126.7 72.5 46.9 3.3 6.1 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 6.4 16.6 14.4 86.7 59.8 46.5 6.0 11.9 20.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.4 11.9 11.2 124.8 71.9 43.2 2.2 5.0 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.3 13.7 12.3 125.0 72.0 47.1 4.1 7.4 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.3 11.8 10.8 91.1 62.4 42.7 4.2 7.9 13.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.7 16.7 18.0 104.9 65.6 52.9 6.1 10.7 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 4.9 13.0 10.1 89.0 61.4 40.9 5.4 9.4 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.6 18.2 18.4 116.7 69.0 56.0 6.0 10.6 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 13.5 15.5 11.7 94.0 63.6 47.5 4.4 9.4 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.4 13.4 11.3 93.6 63.0 44.1 4.7 9.0 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 5.5 15.5 10.8 90.4 61.8 42.2 6.0 10.7 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.7 15.9 14.7 97.7 63.7 50.5 5.9 10.7 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 4.4 12.1 13.7 103.3 66.5 47.6 4.3 7.6 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 3.2 12.5 10.4 128.5 72.9 45.1 3.5 6.4 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 5.3 14.8 13.2 97.6 64.5 47.5 5.2 9.6 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.3 13.8 12.6 122.1 71.3 46.0 3.1 6.5 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 19.3 23.8 18.7 109.5 66.8 54.4 7.9 14.5 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 5.9 13.8 10.5 92.7 62.7 43.3 6.5 10.2 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------