***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2018.-08.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 68.3 81.5 75.9 120.2 69.5 60.2 44.8 60.1 77.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 51.0 76.3 63.3 109.8 63.8 54.9 51.6 64.5 78.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 54.9 93.6 71.7 117.1 67.9 58.5 55.8 72.4 91.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 87.2 104.9 82.8 146.3 80.7 69.2 41.2 58.2 78.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 80.2 87.0 75.0 131.6 75.1 65.1 40.4 55.9 73.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 71.7 80.2 85.3 133.2 77.0 68.1 32.4 46.8 63.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 47.3 72.8 61.9 105.8 61.2 52.3 48.0 62.3 78.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 113.1 121.4 84.4 130.2 75.1 65.7 61.0 81.6 104.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 77.7 81.4 78.1 126.0 72.4 64.0 39.0 54.4 72.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 103.2 103.2 84.9 121.3 70.2 61.6 56.8 75.7 96.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 72.5 78.8 73.1 132.6 75.8 65.2 36.6 50.5 66.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 70.4 79.8 73.0 135.2 77.1 66.3 30.6 45.0 62.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 60.6 65.6 75.8 132.8 75.8 65.1 30.1 41.5 54.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 92.1 105.4 89.2 115.1 67.0 59.6 64.8 83.5 104.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 61.1 84.7 72.9 156.5 82.7 71.6 20.7 34.8 52.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 59.0 65.2 73.5 137.1 77.2 66.6 29.8 40.7 53.3 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 39.1 62.2 59.0 100.8 58.2 49.1 40.4 54.3 70.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 91.8 93.2 94.1 119.9 70.2 62.2 49.4 67.0 87.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 53.2 84.4 66.0 114.0 66.3 57.1 54.1 68.5 83.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 88.4 96.7 94.2 127.3 75.2 66.5 48.0 64.4 82.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 68.8 86.5 76.6 124.1 71.5 61.6 44.6 60.7 78.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 44.4 69.4 63.4 106.5 61.9 51.8 46.1 59.2 73.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 85.3 85.7 71.3 119.6 69.4 60.7 53.9 67.3 82.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 114.7 115.6 84.9 120.4 70.1 61.1 66.7 86.9 108.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 62.2 76.0 82.1 121.9 70.6 60.4 43.1 56.2 70.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 65.2 80.3 70.6 145.1 80.6 70.8 29.4 42.9 58.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 72.0 84.6 80.8 118.0 68.5 59.4 50.3 65.1 81.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 62.3 76.3 78.6 152.3 81.8 70.8 29.4 41.4 55.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 120.5 123.0 95.9 121.0 71.3 63.2 70.3 91.0 113.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 75.2 82.8 66.4 114.0 66.4 57.4 55.0 68.2 82.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------