***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.06.2017.-25.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 15.1 15.4 16.9 0.7 62.8 60.1 14.1 14.8 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 15.7 15.9 17.3 1.2 72.1 66.7 13.6 14.6 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 16.6 17.3 17.3 0.9 66.6 62.6 15.2 16.3 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 12.0 12.0 14.2 0.3 56.4 54.6 10.3 11.5 12.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 13.3 13.3 14.5 0.3 56.7 54.7 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.4 12.0 11.8 -0.1 47.9 47.4 11.3 12.1 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 15.7 15.8 17.2 1.1 70.1 65.6 13.9 14.8 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.2 11.6 -0.1 47.7 48.0 6.2 7.3 8.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 14.7 14.8 14.8 0.4 59.4 56.9 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 14.5 14.3 12.8 0.1 52.3 51.6 13.4 14.2 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 14.5 14.4 13.9 0.2 54.6 53.1 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.0 12.6 -0.1 48.9 48.8 11.3 12.0 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 12.7 13.4 12.4 -0.1 46.6 46.6 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.4 14.6 0.5 60.1 57.5 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.8 15.8 0.4 58.1 55.6 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 14.8 14.5 13.3 0.1 51.4 50.4 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 16.3 16.4 17.1 1.3 72.9 67.0 14.4 15.2 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.1 12.9 12.1 0.1 52.6 51.5 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 15.5 15.8 17.4 1.4 74.6 68.6 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.9 8.6 10.0 0.0 49.3 49.1 7.8 8.6 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 14.4 14.5 16.0 0.4 58.6 56.4 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 15.2 15.6 17.2 1.4 75.8 69.2 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 14.8 15.2 17.3 1.4 75.7 69.6 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 14.8 15.0 14.5 0.5 59.9 57.3 13.5 14.5 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 14.2 14.1 15.3 0.1 52.9 52.5 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.4 13.1 12.0 0.0 51.1 50.1 12.4 13.1 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.2 16.1 0.4 58.0 56.6 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.7 14.7 0.3 57.5 55.1 12.6 13.3 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.3 11.3 0.0 51.0 50.2 10.2 11.3 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 15.8 15.9 17.4 1.1 70.5 65.7 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------