***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.06.2017.-02.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 16.0 16.9 18.2 1.8 84.0 72.9 14.3 15.1 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 16.2 17.6 18.3 2.0 87.0 74.7 13.9 14.9 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 17.9 19.1 18.4 1.8 84.9 74.1 15.9 16.8 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 13.2 14.2 15.6 1.5 80.5 71.1 11.0 12.1 13.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 14.5 15.1 15.4 1.3 78.6 69.7 12.7 13.6 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 12.7 13.6 13.3 1.0 73.0 66.4 11.6 12.4 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 16.2 17.3 18.3 2.0 86.5 74.1 14.3 15.1 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 8.1 8.8 12.7 0.7 68.3 62.2 6.9 7.8 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 15.7 16.3 15.7 1.4 80.0 70.8 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 45 55 100 15.4 15.7 13.8 1.0 72.9 65.5 13.7 14.6 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 44 56 100 15.3 15.9 14.7 1.2 76.8 68.8 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 12.7 13.6 13.6 0.9 71.7 65.2 11.5 12.5 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 14.1 15.0 13.2 0.9 71.7 65.6 13.0 13.8 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 16.4 16.9 15.5 1.2 76.7 68.1 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 16.6 17.5 17.1 1.6 83.8 73.8 14.9 15.7 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 45 55 100 15.7 16.3 14.3 1.2 76.7 69.2 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 16.7 17.8 18.1 1.9 86.4 74.0 14.7 15.6 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 13.5 14.3 12.9 0.8 70.5 63.5 12.3 13.2 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 16.1 17.3 18.3 2.0 87.5 75.5 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 9.5 9.9 10.5 0.6 64.5 59.2 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 15.6 16.3 17.0 1.4 80.0 70.5 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 15.7 16.8 17.9 1.9 86.4 74.3 13.6 14.5 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 15.6 16.9 18.1 1.9 87.2 75.8 13.5 14.5 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 15.9 16.6 15.3 1.2 77.3 68.6 13.8 14.8 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 15.5 16.1 16.4 1.4 77.8 68.3 13.7 14.5 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 14.5 14.9 13.2 1.1 75.8 69.0 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 15.7 16.7 17.3 1.7 82.4 71.3 13.5 14.5 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 14.4 15.2 16.0 1.5 81.6 72.4 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 12.2 12.9 12.1 0.7 67.3 61.1 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 16.4 17.6 18.4 1.9 86.3 74.4 14.4 15.3 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------