***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.06.2017.-18.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 28.3 28.5 27.4 1.7 73.4 71.3 25.1 26.5 27.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 27.9 28.6 28.3 2.5 80.4 77.9 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 27.6 27.7 27.3 1.6 70.6 68.9 24.3 25.8 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 19.5 20.2 23.8 0.9 63.7 62.1 17.8 19.2 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 26.7 27.2 24.6 0.7 59.8 58.8 24.9 26.4 27.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 25.6 24.4 21.0 -0.5 41.6 42.7 23.6 25.1 26.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 27.3 27.6 27.6 1.8 73.7 71.8 24.2 25.6 26.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 15.0 14.8 21.7 0.2 52.4 51.9 13.1 14.6 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 27.3 27.2 25.9 1.1 66.3 64.6 24.2 25.7 27.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 26.0 26.2 23.2 0.5 56.7 55.9 24.2 25.6 27.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 26.4 26.8 24.8 0.6 58.8 57.7 24.6 26.1 27.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 25.6 25.7 23.1 0.4 55.7 54.8 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 26.7 26.3 23.6 0.0 50.0 49.9 24.8 26.3 27.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 27.0 26.9 25.4 1.3 66.8 65.2 24.0 25.5 26.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 28.3 28.4 26.8 1.2 68.8 66.4 25.8 27.0 28.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 27.3 27.3 23.9 0.3 54.6 54.0 25.5 27.0 28.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 27.3 28.0 27.9 2.6 80.7 78.1 23.8 25.2 26.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 25.4 25.4 22.0 0.3 53.9 53.4 23.5 25.0 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 27.4 28.3 28.4 2.8 82.6 79.9 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 21.1 20.8 19.7 0.0 50.6 50.4 19.1 20.7 22.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 26.3 27.0 26.5 0.9 62.8 61.7 24.4 25.9 27.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 27.7 28.4 27.7 2.6 80.7 77.5 24.2 25.6 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 27.8 29.0 28.4 3.0 84.5 81.8 24.2 25.6 27.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 25.6 26.3 25.0 0.9 62.0 60.9 23.7 25.2 26.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 26.5 27.2 25.5 0.8 62.3 61.2 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 26.4 25.8 21.9 -0.1 47.8 47.9 24.5 26.0 27.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 27.1 27.1 26.4 1.2 67.5 65.9 24.3 25.6 27.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 27.4 27.9 24.7 0.7 60.7 59.3 25.7 27.1 28.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 20.7 20.6 21.1 0.2 52.7 52.3 18.7 20.4 21.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 27.5 28.1 28.1 2.2 77.7 75.4 24.2 25.6 26.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------