***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.06.2017.-25.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 29.3 30.1 29.0 2.6 80.3 73.4 25.9 27.3 28.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 28.8 30.5 29.7 3.4 86.2 78.3 25.1 26.7 28.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 28.8 29.5 29.0 2.4 78.2 71.9 25.2 26.7 28.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 21.9 22.0 25.7 1.6 71.3 65.9 18.4 20.0 21.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 29.2 29.1 26.4 1.5 69.4 65.1 25.5 27.2 28.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 26.4 26.2 22.9 0.3 54.4 53.3 24.2 25.8 27.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 28.7 30.1 29.4 3.1 84.2 76.6 25.0 26.6 28.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 17.0 16.7 24.0 1.1 64.6 61.6 13.8 15.3 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 28.8 29.1 27.4 1.9 73.9 68.3 25.0 26.7 28.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 28.4 28.3 25.2 1.4 68.1 64.1 25.0 26.6 28.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 28.7 28.7 26.5 1.5 69.6 65.4 25.2 26.8 28.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 27.6 27.5 25.3 1.3 66.8 63.1 24.5 26.0 27.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 27.5 27.9 24.9 0.8 60.2 57.9 25.4 27.0 28.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 28.7 28.5 26.5 1.6 70.4 66.0 25.0 26.6 28.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 29.9 30.5 28.1 2.0 76.8 69.7 26.4 28.0 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 29.3 29.0 25.6 1.2 65.5 62.0 26.0 27.6 29.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 28.3 30.1 29.6 3.5 87.4 79.1 24.7 26.2 27.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 27.7 27.2 24.1 1.2 64.6 61.5 24.3 25.9 27.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 28.3 30.0 29.7 3.4 86.2 78.2 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 22.1 22.3 21.4 0.6 58.0 56.6 19.9 21.6 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 28.9 28.9 28.0 1.8 71.8 67.0 25.2 26.8 28.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 28.8 30.6 29.2 3.4 86.8 78.6 24.9 26.5 28.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 28.7 30.2 29.4 3.2 85.0 77.1 25.0 26.5 28.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 28.2 28.0 26.5 1.6 69.7 65.5 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 29.2 29.2 26.9 1.8 72.5 67.5 25.4 27.0 28.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 27.0 27.6 24.3 0.9 62.7 59.7 24.9 26.5 27.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 28.5 29.0 27.9 2.2 77.2 70.9 25.0 26.5 27.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 29.8 29.9 26.5 1.5 70.6 65.3 26.4 28.0 29.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 21.8 22.3 23.0 0.9 61.4 59.1 19.5 21.2 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 28.7 30.1 29.5 3.1 84.1 76.5 25.1 26.6 28.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------