***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.06.2017.-02.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 29.6 30.9 29.5 2.9 85.8 74.8 26.8 28.0 29.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 29.3 30.7 29.7 3.2 88.4 75.5 26.8 27.9 28.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 29.3 30.6 29.8 2.9 85.3 73.9 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 22.2 23.3 27.5 2.6 83.0 73.3 19.3 20.6 21.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 29.9 30.8 27.6 2.4 80.3 70.9 27.0 28.3 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 28.2 28.6 24.6 1.7 72.4 65.7 25.6 26.8 28.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 29.1 30.4 29.5 3.0 86.4 74.0 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 17.6 18.0 25.3 1.8 72.6 65.4 14.9 16.2 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 29.3 30.5 27.9 2.5 81.8 71.6 26.5 27.8 29.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 28.9 29.6 26.2 2.1 76.4 67.9 26.1 27.5 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 29.5 30.4 27.3 2.4 79.9 70.8 26.4 27.8 29.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 28.4 28.9 26.7 2.0 74.9 67.4 25.6 26.9 28.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 29.6 29.7 25.5 1.6 70.4 64.3 26.8 28.1 29.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 28.8 29.2 26.7 1.9 75.0 66.7 26.5 27.6 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 30.3 31.7 28.9 3.0 87.6 77.3 27.5 28.6 29.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 30.4 31.1 26.7 2.2 77.2 69.2 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 28.6 30.0 29.4 3.1 87.8 74.9 26.1 27.2 28.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 28.2 28.4 25.1 1.6 70.6 63.9 25.5 26.8 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 28.9 30.4 29.9 3.3 88.6 75.7 26.4 27.4 28.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 23.1 23.5 22.2 0.9 62.2 58.2 21.2 22.5 23.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 29.4 30.3 28.6 2.4 80.6 70.9 26.7 27.9 29.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 29.1 30.4 29.1 3.0 86.9 74.0 26.7 27.7 28.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 29.1 30.5 29.6 3.1 87.0 74.6 26.5 27.6 28.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 28.6 29.1 26.9 2.0 76.3 67.7 26.0 27.2 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 29.4 30.3 27.5 2.4 81.4 71.8 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 29.2 29.9 26.3 2.2 77.0 69.9 26.4 27.7 28.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 29.0 30.1 28.5 2.7 84.0 73.4 26.4 27.5 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 30.3 31.3 27.9 2.7 83.3 73.8 27.6 28.8 29.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.6 23.2 23.8 1.2 65.5 60.5 20.8 22.1 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 29.1 30.5 29.7 3.1 87.3 74.9 26.5 27.6 28.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------