***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.07.2017.-09.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 29.1 30.0 29.2 1.6 70.5 61.8 27.7 28.7 29.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 29.6 29.9 29.5 1.9 73.6 64.9 27.1 28.2 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 28.8 29.8 29.4 1.6 69.8 61.3 27.1 28.3 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 22.2 23.1 27.1 1.4 67.7 60.1 20.0 21.5 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 29.6 30.2 27.2 1.2 64.8 58.2 27.7 29.0 30.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 25.8 28.2 24.4 0.6 58.4 55.1 26.1 27.5 28.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 29.3 29.6 29.3 1.7 72.3 63.8 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 17.3 17.5 25.0 0.7 59.4 55.3 15.3 16.7 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 29.0 29.8 27.5 1.3 66.2 59.0 27.2 28.5 29.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 28.8 29.2 25.8 1.0 62.2 56.6 27.0 28.3 29.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 29.2 29.8 26.9 1.2 65.4 58.8 27.3 28.6 29.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 28.3 28.6 26.4 0.9 61.4 56.8 26.4 27.7 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 27.2 29.4 25.3 0.5 56.6 53.9 27.4 28.8 30.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 28.4 28.6 26.4 0.8 60.3 55.0 26.9 28.0 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 31.1 31.4 28.5 1.7 72.9 63.8 28.2 29.6 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 30.1 30.5 26.5 1.0 63.0 57.6 28.0 29.5 30.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 28.8 29.2 29.2 1.8 73.5 64.8 26.4 27.5 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 25.9 27.9 24.8 0.6 57.3 53.4 26.1 27.4 28.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 29.2 29.6 29.5 1.9 73.7 64.7 26.7 27.8 29.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 23.6 23.1 22.0 0.1 50.8 50.0 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 29.1 29.7 28.3 1.1 64.6 57.8 27.2 28.5 29.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 29.4 29.8 28.9 1.7 72.4 63.6 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 28.5 29.6 29.3 1.8 72.5 63.5 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 28.2 28.5 26.6 0.9 61.8 56.1 26.6 27.7 28.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 27.0 29.7 27.2 1.2 65.7 58.5 27.2 28.5 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 26.8 29.6 26.2 1.1 64.3 59.4 27.0 28.4 29.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 28.5 29.3 28.2 1.4 69.0 60.6 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 30.2 31.1 27.5 1.4 68.6 61.0 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 23.2 22.9 23.6 0.3 53.3 51.0 21.3 22.6 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 29.4 29.6 29.4 1.8 72.5 63.8 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------