***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.06.2017.-18.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 4.4 4.7 8.2 36.5 30.1 24.7 5.5 11.4 20.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 5.6 6.4 7.6 38.3 30.2 25.0 7.4 13.8 23.0 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 7.8 10.4 8.9 43.9 34.6 27.6 9.5 18.9 32.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 7.5 8.7 9.8 47.2 33.8 29.0 8.3 16.6 28.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 4.6 6.1 8.6 43.2 32.3 26.8 6.2 12.0 20.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 5.6 8.5 14.4 64.4 43.1 37.5 5.4 11.2 20.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 76 24 0 100 5.1 5.5 6.8 35.5 27.9 23.2 6.8 12.8 21.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 9.2 10.7 12.8 52.9 34.3 30.7 10.2 18.1 28.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 6.3 8.4 9.7 46.6 34.3 28.9 7.9 15.1 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 9.0 10.6 12.5 49.9 33.7 29.4 10.4 19.1 31.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 6.3 8.2 9.6 48.6 35.8 29.8 7.4 13.3 21.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 4.2 5.3 10.0 52.8 36.4 32.3 4.6 9.1 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 4.2 6.1 10.3 50.0 35.6 30.6 5.3 10.7 18.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 8.0 9.1 11.7 43.7 32.0 27.1 9.5 17.7 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 3.5 5.6 8.8 48.9 39.2 31.6 4.2 8.7 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 3.9 5.7 11.0 57.3 40.1 33.7 4.3 8.2 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 79 21 0 100 4.4 5.0 6.5 33.3 27.4 22.5 6.3 11.7 18.8 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 8.7 10.1 14.7 55.9 36.1 31.6 8.9 16.3 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 8.3 9.9 8.7 42.2 32.8 27.5 9.9 17.8 28.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 8.0 10.8 15.8 63.0 39.6 35.8 8.0 15.6 26.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 6.7 9.4 9.8 49.1 36.4 29.3 8.5 14.4 22.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 75 25 0 100 5.2 6.5 7.7 37.5 31.3 25.7 6.8 11.8 18.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 5.7 7.1 10.3 46.9 35.1 29.8 6.6 12.5 20.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 11.7 14.1 11.3 47.7 34.0 28.6 13.6 23.1 35.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 5.2 5.6 8.3 36.4 28.3 23.9 7.1 13.7 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 4.7 4.5 7.3 39.3 29.5 25.9 5.4 11.1 18.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 5.6 5.5 7.5 32.4 26.3 22.0 7.5 13.9 22.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 5.2 7.5 10.2 52.0 38.0 31.8 6.1 11.6 19.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 11.8 13.8 14.3 55.0 34.9 31.2 12.9 21.8 33.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 5.9 6.9 7.9 40.1 31.8 25.7 7.4 14.4 24.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------