***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.06.2017.-25.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 5.3 8.3 9.4 57.2 43.8 35.2 5.4 10.3 17.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 14.5 10.2 9.4 64.3 49.3 41.2 5.1 10.4 17.9 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 6.2 10.2 10.2 63.2 46.7 38.7 5.8 11.5 19.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.7 10.5 12.1 77.9 54.5 39.9 4.1 8.8 15.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 5.6 12.1 11.9 78.2 53.6 41.2 4.4 10.5 20.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 4.7 11.6 14.3 89.9 58.2 46.5 4.2 8.7 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 14.5 9.1 9.3 59.8 45.9 38.9 5.4 10.6 18.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 16.5 17.2 14.0 93.3 60.6 49.6 5.3 11.6 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 4.5 9.1 11.3 72.2 50.6 39.4 4.3 8.9 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 6.5 14.8 14.2 85.3 56.7 45.8 5.4 11.7 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 12.4 10.4 12.8 82.6 54.6 43.3 4.0 8.7 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.5 12.2 88.0 58.2 47.5 3.7 7.8 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 4.0 7.9 10.3 71.3 51.9 40.1 3.6 7.3 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.8 15.3 14.5 79.2 53.7 43.3 6.9 13.5 22.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 3.3 6.8 10.2 70.5 51.0 38.7 3.0 6.5 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.8 8.2 11.4 77.5 53.5 39.4 3.4 7.2 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 5.2 7.9 9.0 60.7 45.6 37.5 4.7 9.4 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.5 11.7 16.3 89.3 57.6 48.1 3.6 8.4 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 14.6 10.6 9.8 66.7 50.4 42.1 5.0 10.4 18.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.9 16.0 95.8 59.5 50.4 5.5 9.8 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 4.1 7.6 10.5 63.9 46.2 35.8 3.9 8.8 16.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.8 8.6 9.8 64.3 47.7 39.5 4.4 9.3 16.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 8.1 13.4 10.5 69.1 50.7 41.3 7.9 13.2 20.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 6.7 14.2 13.7 75.9 52.4 42.6 6.0 12.9 23.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 5.0 8.7 11.7 65.4 47.2 36.9 5.0 9.5 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 11.6 13.1 12.9 99.6 62.4 51.0 4.8 9.0 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 5.9 8.7 10.5 57.0 42.5 34.1 5.8 11.4 18.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.7 7.6 11.9 84.5 57.6 41.8 3.4 6.1 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 18.6 18.8 17.6 93.1 59.0 49.9 7.4 14.1 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 14.6 10.7 9.7 63.4 48.7 40.9 6.2 11.2 17.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------