***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.06.2017.-02.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 8.2 15.7 11.1 81.5 58.5 45.4 8.2 12.9 18.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 8.0 17.4 11.6 96.9 63.9 47.2 7.6 12.4 18.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 7.1 14.7 11.9 88.7 60.9 48.0 6.9 11.2 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 5.2 14.6 13.1 100.7 65.1 48.2 4.8 9.1 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.1 11.9 11.7 91.6 62.4 48.2 3.7 7.6 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.9 10.4 13.2 90.8 61.0 48.8 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 5.1 12.5 11.4 93.8 63.0 46.9 5.0 8.7 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 9.4 26.7 13.8 99.9 64.7 50.4 8.5 16.5 27.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 4.1 10.4 12.0 85.4 59.9 45.8 4.0 7.6 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 5.9 15.2 14.3 89.9 61.0 47.5 5.4 10.6 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.3 11.6 10.5 91.7 62.6 48.2 3.8 7.5 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.5 14.5 11.1 96.3 64.0 50.3 5.0 9.4 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.4 8.4 10.4 87.5 60.8 44.3 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 9.3 21.0 16.2 88.0 60.4 47.4 8.6 15.4 24.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.8 11.3 11.1 98.8 65.1 44.8 2.3 5.8 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.1 9.1 10.5 89.8 61.8 44.3 2.7 5.8 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 6.0 17.2 11.2 96.4 63.3 46.2 5.4 10.8 18.9 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 7.8 18.0 16.5 88.2 60.1 48.8 7.5 13.4 21.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 13.9 15.7 11.7 95.2 63.2 47.3 5.6 10.5 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 6.9 18.2 17.2 103.7 65.4 52.4 6.6 11.7 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 7.0 15.3 11.0 81.2 58.6 45.1 7.0 12.2 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 7.2 17.2 11.7 92.6 62.0 44.7 7.1 12.4 19.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 13.4 14.5 11.8 88.8 61.2 47.5 5.6 10.3 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 11.2 23.2 14.6 87.7 60.3 48.2 10.9 17.9 26.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 6.5 13.2 12.4 84.1 59.3 45.8 6.4 10.5 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.2 9.2 8.5 91.7 62.6 49.2 3.1 6.1 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 7.7 16.7 12.8 83.4 58.9 45.2 7.9 13.1 20.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.4 10.2 12.5 101.0 65.6 47.2 3.1 6.0 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 10.9 26.2 17.5 93.6 61.7 50.8 10.0 18.4 29.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 8.5 19.1 11.9 95.7 63.3 47.7 8.2 13.6 20.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------