***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.07.2017.-09.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 4.6 21.2 14.1 124.3 71.7 50.8 3.9 9.0 17.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 5.0 19.5 13.3 138.1 75.0 51.5 4.5 8.7 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 5.1 19.3 13.8 121.1 70.7 49.0 4.8 9.7 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 3.9 13.8 12.4 116.8 69.7 49.4 3.4 6.9 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.0 14.4 12.0 116.4 69.7 50.7 3.6 7.3 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.8 10.0 15.3 124.8 72.0 52.6 2.7 5.1 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 6.5 24.5 13.4 138.8 75.1 50.5 6.2 11.4 18.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 7.8 20.3 13.7 116.0 69.1 52.8 7.9 12.8 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.9 16.1 13.0 114.9 69.0 50.6 3.4 7.8 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 6.0 20.2 15.0 113.7 68.5 51.7 5.8 11.1 18.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.7 12.4 11.4 117.0 70.0 51.7 3.4 6.5 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.7 13.3 11.4 117.8 70.0 52.1 3.5 7.0 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.6 8.0 11.5 110.9 68.5 49.1 2.6 4.6 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 5.2 23.7 18.1 129.0 72.6 50.0 5.3 10.8 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.2 11.0 11.6 133.7 74.2 51.1 1.9 4.3 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.0 8.9 11.2 110.5 68.3 48.4 3.1 5.4 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 2.6 9.6 12.6 121.5 71.2 48.4 2.4 4.8 8.2 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 6.5 17.3 17.2 115.4 68.7 51.2 6.9 11.1 16.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 6.3 20.2 13.9 137.9 74.9 51.2 5.9 10.2 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 6.5 18.6 17.3 118.9 69.5 53.6 6.3 10.8 16.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 5.0 18.8 12.9 115.2 69.3 49.1 4.8 9.7 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.1 13.9 12.6 111.9 68.5 47.3 5.0 8.5 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 6.3 23.8 15.1 140.3 75.4 50.7 6.3 11.3 18.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 5.6 19.3 15.7 120.1 70.0 49.6 5.7 10.5 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 4.3 16.9 14.9 126.6 72.2 51.7 4.0 8.0 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 2.8 9.5 9.2 118.6 70.6 50.0 2.9 5.2 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.6 19.3 15.4 129.5 72.9 51.6 4.2 8.6 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.2 13.0 12.2 121.6 71.1 50.4 2.8 5.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 8.5 23.0 17.8 119.5 69.7 52.5 8.6 14.1 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 5.9 19.2 13.6 137.5 74.8 51.6 5.5 9.6 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------