***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.06.2017.-09.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 39.0 44.1 42.8 67.1 33.1 32.9 44.1 60.8 80.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 45.8 55.7 41.9 74.7 39.8 36.4 50.3 64.3 80.1 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 51.1 60.8 44.7 73.1 37.9 36.0 56.0 73.4 93.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 36.7 50.0 47.4 79.1 41.9 38.0 40.9 58.5 79.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 36.8 45.5 44.1 76.0 39.1 36.7 39.6 56.5 75.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 31.9 43.9 57.2 87.5 47.9 43.1 32.3 45.9 62.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 42.5 50.6 40.9 72.4 37.8 35.2 46.8 61.1 76.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 59.3 73.5 54.4 83.7 43.9 40.6 60.3 81.2 104.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 40.9 47.2 46.0 74.3 36.6 35.3 44.1 59.1 75.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 55.8 64.9 56.0 79.0 39.7 37.7 58.3 76.4 96.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 33.8 42.4 44.3 78.4 41.1 37.7 35.7 50.2 67.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 29.0 39.5 44.7 82.7 44.8 40.8 29.5 44.3 62.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 27.3 31.7 42.5 74.2 38.8 36.6 27.7 39.9 53.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 61.1 71.6 60.5 78.0 38.9 36.8 65.3 83.6 103.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 17.9 28.0 41.7 79.4 44.1 38.0 18.9 33.4 53.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 25.9 33.7 44.0 79.2 42.6 38.4 27.9 38.6 51.0 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 34.8 40.6 39.4 69.6 35.4 33.2 38.7 52.8 68.8 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 48.2 59.4 64.6 82.7 42.3 40.5 50.3 67.4 86.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 50.2 61.3 44.1 76.4 40.8 37.2 54.4 69.1 85.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 72.8 61.9 66.4 90.4 48.1 44.8 47.4 63.8 82.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 40.8 48.9 44.2 72.3 36.3 34.8 46.1 62.8 81.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 40.3 46.3 41.8 70.1 35.5 33.7 44.6 57.3 71.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 50.0 60.2 47.7 78.0 41.7 37.5 53.9 66.6 80.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 63.9 74.0 55.4 77.3 38.8 37.5 67.6 87.3 109.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 40.4 45.0 47.3 70.3 34.9 34.5 43.4 57.5 73.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 27.2 35.4 37.9 78.1 42.3 38.9 28.7 41.5 56.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 44.6 48.6 46.2 67.0 32.4 32.9 49.1 65.1 82.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 26.0 38.0 46.8 83.4 46.4 39.6 28.7 40.9 55.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 68.7 83.4 67.2 85.6 44.3 42.2 69.8 91.0 114.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 49.8 59.5 43.1 75.3 40.2 37.0 53.7 67.9 82.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------