***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.06.2016.-26.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.1 17.2 0.2 53.4 51.0 14.2 15.0 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.0 14.8 17.1 0.2 53.2 51.5 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 16.8 16.5 17.4 0.1 51.4 49.9 15.3 16.4 17.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 12.1 12.0 14.9 0.3 54.8 52.2 10.4 11.6 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.2 15.3 0.2 53.7 50.9 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 12.4 12.6 13.0 0.4 60.5 55.6 11.3 12.1 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 15.2 15.0 17.2 0.2 53.8 51.9 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 7.8 7.7 12.9 0.2 54.9 51.5 6.3 7.4 8.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 14.8 14.8 15.6 0.3 55.5 52.3 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.5 13.9 0.2 54.9 51.6 13.4 14.3 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.5 15.0 0.3 55.6 51.7 13.4 14.2 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 12.4 12.3 13.8 0.2 54.0 50.8 11.4 12.2 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 13.8 13.7 13.6 0.2 55.6 52.1 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.3 15.1 15.3 0.1 52.6 50.4 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 15.8 15.9 16.8 0.4 58.4 54.9 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 14.7 14.7 14.4 0.3 56.0 52.4 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.6 17.0 0.3 55.6 53.3 14.4 15.3 16.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 13.2 13.1 13.3 0.2 53.6 51.0 12.1 12.9 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.0 14.7 17.1 0.1 52.1 50.5 13.8 14.6 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.1 9.0 11.1 0.2 54.5 51.7 7.9 8.8 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.4 16.8 0.2 53.3 51.1 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.5 17.0 0.3 54.4 52.2 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 14.3 14.1 17.0 0.1 52.4 50.6 13.1 14.0 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 14.9 14.7 15.3 0.1 52.7 50.6 13.5 14.5 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 14.4 14.3 16.2 0.2 54.5 51.7 13.3 14.1 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.4 13.1 0.3 56.2 52.3 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 14.3 14.2 16.7 0.3 54.9 52.0 13.1 14.0 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 13.7 13.7 15.6 0.4 57.6 54.2 12.6 13.4 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 11.7 11.6 12.5 0.2 53.3 50.7 10.3 11.4 12.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 15.2 15.0 17.3 0.1 52.3 50.6 13.9 14.9 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------