***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.06.2016.-03.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.4 17.5 0.1 52.4 50.2 14.5 15.3 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.6 17.4 0.3 56.9 53.3 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 17.4 17.3 17.8 0.2 53.6 51.0 16.2 17.1 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.6 15.2 0.2 54.4 52.1 11.3 12.4 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 14.3 14.1 15.2 0.1 52.6 50.7 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 13.0 13.0 13.4 0.3 56.2 53.6 11.9 12.7 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.7 17.6 0.3 55.8 52.7 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 8.4 8.5 13.3 0.4 58.0 54.9 7.2 8.1 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 14.0 15.1 15.4 0.1 53.0 50.8 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.2 15.1 14.1 0.3 55.7 53.0 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 15.1 15.0 14.8 0.3 55.9 53.3 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.0 13.0 14.0 0.3 56.4 53.7 11.7 12.7 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.5 14.3 13.3 0.1 52.9 51.2 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.9 15.8 15.5 0.2 54.5 52.1 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 16.2 16.1 16.7 0.2 55.2 52.6 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.4 14.3 0.2 55.2 52.8 14.2 15.1 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.4 17.5 0.5 60.8 56.2 14.9 15.8 16.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.8 13.7 13.5 0.2 55.2 52.8 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.5 17.5 0.3 56.1 52.8 14.2 15.2 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.7 11.1 0.3 57.0 54.4 8.6 9.4 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 13.9 15.0 16.8 0.1 51.6 49.8 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 13.7 15.3 17.3 0.5 59.9 55.4 13.8 14.7 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.1 15.0 17.4 0.3 55.7 52.7 13.8 14.7 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.3 15.3 0.2 54.1 51.8 14.0 15.0 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.2 14.9 16.0 0.1 52.2 50.4 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 14.2 14.2 13.3 0.3 57.6 54.9 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.2 15.0 16.7 0.1 52.4 50.3 13.8 14.8 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.0 15.7 0.2 55.0 52.5 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.5 12.4 12.8 0.2 55.3 53.0 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.8 17.6 0.3 55.0 51.9 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------