***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.06.2016.-10.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 15.2 15.3 17.4 0.2 57.3 54.6 14.7 15.1 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 14.9 14.9 17.2 0.2 56.1 53.8 14.0 14.7 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 16.8 16.7 17.5 0.1 53.4 51.8 15.9 16.6 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 12.0 12.0 15.0 0.2 56.0 54.3 11.1 11.8 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 13.6 13.6 15.3 0.1 55.2 53.3 12.8 13.4 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 12.6 12.8 13.2 0.4 64.1 60.8 11.9 12.4 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 15.1 15.1 17.3 0.2 55.8 53.5 14.3 14.9 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 7.7 7.8 13.0 0.2 59.0 56.4 6.9 7.5 8.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 14.8 14.7 15.4 0.1 54.3 52.7 14.0 14.6 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 14.6 14.6 13.9 0.2 56.3 54.3 13.9 14.4 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 14.6 14.6 14.9 0.2 56.1 54.2 13.8 14.4 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.5 12.6 13.9 0.2 58.6 56.2 11.8 12.3 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.0 14.0 13.6 0.2 57.9 55.8 13.3 13.8 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.2 15.2 0.1 52.7 51.5 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 15.9 16.0 16.7 0.2 57.3 55.5 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 15.0 15.1 14.4 0.2 59.2 56.7 14.1 14.7 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 15.5 15.6 17.1 0.3 58.5 55.6 14.7 15.3 15.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.2 13.2 13.3 0.1 55.2 53.6 12.5 13.0 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 14.9 14.9 17.1 0.1 54.4 52.6 14.1 14.7 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.1 9.2 11.1 0.2 59.4 57.1 8.4 8.9 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 14.7 14.6 16.8 0.1 53.4 52.0 13.9 14.5 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 14.6 14.6 17.0 0.2 56.4 54.0 13.8 14.4 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 14.4 14.3 17.0 0.1 54.3 52.8 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 15.0 14.8 15.2 0.1 52.7 51.6 14.0 14.7 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 14.6 14.6 16.1 0.2 58.0 55.3 13.8 14.4 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 13.6 13.8 13.2 0.4 64.4 61.2 12.9 13.4 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.6 16.8 0.3 59.0 55.9 13.7 14.3 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 13.8 13.8 15.6 0.2 58.1 56.1 13.0 13.6 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.7 12.5 0.1 54.5 53.1 10.9 11.5 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 15.2 15.2 17.3 0.2 55.1 53.0 14.4 15.0 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------