***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.06.2016.-19.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 27.0 26.1 26.1 -0.3 45.8 46.5 25.1 26.4 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 23.9 25.3 26.2 -0.5 43.9 44.4 24.4 25.8 27.1 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 24.0 25.2 26.3 -0.4 44.9 45.7 24.2 25.7 27.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 19.6 19.1 23.6 0.1 51.6 51.6 17.7 19.0 20.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 24.6 26.2 24.7 0.0 49.9 50.3 24.8 26.2 27.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 25.6 25.8 22.8 0.6 59.8 58.0 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 23.7 25.1 26.2 -0.3 45.1 45.4 24.1 25.5 26.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 12.8 14.9 22.7 0.3 54.5 53.9 13.0 14.5 15.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 26.2 25.5 25.5 -0.1 48.9 49.3 24.1 25.6 27.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 26.1 25.8 23.7 0.2 53.5 52.8 24.2 25.5 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 26.5 26.2 25.2 0.3 53.7 53.2 24.4 25.9 27.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 25.8 25.6 23.9 0.4 55.5 54.8 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 26.8 27.0 24.8 0.6 59.8 58.1 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 23.7 25.2 25.0 -0.2 47.8 47.7 24.0 25.4 26.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 27.4 26.8 26.3 0.0 49.1 49.6 25.6 26.9 28.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 27.4 27.4 24.8 0.5 57.1 56.0 25.4 26.8 28.2 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 23.4 24.8 25.9 -0.3 46.1 46.0 23.7 25.2 26.5 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 23.4 25.2 22.6 0.2 52.2 51.7 23.6 25.0 26.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 23.4 24.7 26.2 -0.4 44.0 44.5 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 18.9 21.0 20.6 0.2 53.3 52.8 19.2 20.7 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 26.4 25.6 26.3 -0.2 47.4 48.0 24.3 25.8 27.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 23.8 25.2 25.9 -0.3 46.4 46.1 24.1 25.5 26.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 26.1 25.5 26.3 -0.1 49.2 48.8 24.1 25.5 26.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 23.4 25.1 25.0 0.0 49.6 49.4 23.7 25.1 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 26.6 25.8 25.2 -0.1 47.9 48.4 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 26.4 26.7 23.4 0.7 60.3 58.6 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 26.1 25.2 25.6 -0.2 46.3 46.9 24.1 25.5 26.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 27.4 27.1 24.9 0.2 53.0 52.7 25.6 26.9 28.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 18.5 20.5 21.9 0.2 52.5 51.9 18.8 20.3 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 23.7 25.0 26.2 -0.5 43.5 44.3 24.1 25.5 26.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------