***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.06.2016.-26.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 25.3 26.6 26.6 -0.6 41.3 43.0 25.9 27.3 28.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 25.0 26.2 26.8 -0.6 42.6 43.9 25.3 26.9 28.3 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 24.9 25.9 26.6 -0.9 37.9 40.4 25.4 26.9 28.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 18.1 19.4 24.3 -0.5 42.0 43.8 18.6 20.1 21.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 25.2 26.3 24.8 -0.8 38.3 41.1 25.7 27.3 28.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 23.8 25.5 22.8 -0.3 44.5 46.4 24.4 25.9 27.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 24.9 26.2 26.8 -0.5 44.2 45.2 25.2 26.7 28.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 13.6 14.7 22.9 -0.6 41.2 43.7 14.0 15.5 16.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 24.7 25.8 25.4 -0.8 38.3 41.2 25.2 26.8 28.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 24.6 25.8 23.7 -0.7 39.7 42.4 25.1 26.7 28.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 24.9 26.1 25.0 -0.7 40.4 42.8 25.4 27.0 28.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 24.3 25.5 24.2 -0.5 42.8 44.9 24.6 26.1 27.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 25.1 26.6 24.3 -0.4 44.0 45.9 25.5 27.1 28.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 24.7 25.9 25.0 -0.8 39.7 41.9 25.3 26.8 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 26.3 27.6 26.4 -0.4 43.2 44.7 26.7 28.1 29.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 25.7 27.1 24.6 -0.5 42.8 44.8 26.1 27.8 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 24.6 26.0 26.8 -0.3 46.9 47.2 24.8 26.3 27.7 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 23.9 25.1 22.9 -0.7 40.2 42.7 24.4 26.0 27.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 24.5 25.6 26.8 -0.7 41.2 42.8 24.9 26.4 27.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 19.7 21.1 20.9 -0.5 42.7 44.6 20.1 21.8 23.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 24.9 25.8 26.3 -1.0 37.0 40.0 25.4 27.0 28.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 24.8 26.4 26.7 -0.3 46.3 46.6 25.2 26.7 28.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 24.8 26.0 26.7 -0.6 42.5 43.9 25.2 26.7 28.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 24.4 25.4 25.0 -0.9 38.7 41.3 24.9 26.4 27.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 25.2 26.3 25.2 -0.7 40.2 42.4 25.6 27.2 28.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 24.7 26.7 24.0 0.0 49.8 49.5 25.1 26.7 28.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 24.8 26.0 25.9 -0.5 42.4 43.9 25.2 26.7 28.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 26.3 27.5 25.2 -0.5 42.4 44.2 26.7 28.2 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 19.1 20.5 22.2 -0.7 40.8 43.1 19.7 21.3 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 24.9 26.0 26.8 -0.7 41.1 42.8 25.3 26.8 28.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------