***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.07.2016.-10.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 28.9 28.4 28.1 -0.1 48.2 48.9 27.5 28.5 29.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 28.5 28.3 28.5 0.3 53.5 52.5 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 28.6 28.0 28.5 -0.1 48.5 49.1 26.9 28.1 29.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 21.9 21.0 26.3 -0.3 45.9 46.5 19.9 21.3 22.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 29.4 28.5 26.5 -0.3 46.0 46.5 27.5 28.8 30.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 28.0 27.2 24.1 -0.1 48.4 48.6 25.9 27.4 28.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 28.3 28.1 28.5 0.3 53.5 52.5 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 14.9 16.4 24.8 -0.1 49.1 48.6 15.1 16.5 17.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 26.9 28.2 26.7 -0.2 47.5 47.7 27.1 28.3 29.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 26.7 28.1 25.4 -0.1 49.0 48.6 26.9 28.1 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 26.9 28.3 26.2 -0.1 48.6 48.3 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 26.0 27.4 26.0 -0.1 48.6 48.4 26.3 27.6 28.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 29.3 28.5 25.2 -0.1 48.2 48.3 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 28.3 27.9 26.3 0.1 51.3 50.6 26.8 27.9 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 29.9 29.0 27.4 -0.4 44.9 45.9 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 29.9 29.1 25.9 -0.1 48.3 48.3 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 27.9 27.9 28.6 0.5 57.1 55.2 26.3 27.5 28.5 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 25.7 27.2 24.8 0.0 50.1 49.3 26.0 27.2 28.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 28.1 27.9 28.5 0.2 52.5 51.8 26.5 27.7 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 21.1 22.8 22.4 0.0 49.9 49.0 21.3 22.8 24.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 28.9 28.0 27.6 -0.3 46.1 47.0 27.1 28.3 29.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 28.5 28.4 28.3 0.4 56.1 54.4 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 28.3 28.0 28.4 0.2 52.6 51.9 26.8 27.9 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 28.0 27.5 26.3 0.0 49.9 49.5 26.4 27.5 28.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 28.8 28.1 26.3 -0.3 45.5 46.5 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 26.6 28.5 26.0 0.3 53.4 52.2 26.9 28.2 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 28.2 27.7 27.2 -0.1 48.2 48.8 26.7 27.8 28.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 30.0 29.1 26.6 -0.4 45.3 46.1 28.1 29.5 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 20.9 22.5 23.8 0.0 49.8 48.9 21.2 22.5 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 28.3 28.0 28.4 0.1 51.3 50.9 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------