***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.06.2016.-10.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 27.9 27.4 27.1 -0.3 43.9 44.4 27.0 27.7 28.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 27.5 27.1 27.4 -0.1 47.3 46.9 26.4 27.2 28.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 27.6 26.8 27.3 -0.4 42.2 43.0 26.4 27.2 28.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 20.7 20.1 25.0 -0.2 45.7 46.0 19.5 20.3 21.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 28.1 27.4 25.5 -0.3 42.9 43.9 26.8 27.7 28.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 26.6 26.5 23.4 0.1 52.5 52.0 25.5 26.3 27.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 27.3 27.0 27.4 -0.1 48.8 48.2 26.2 27.0 27.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.7 23.7 0.0 49.1 49.2 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 27.6 26.9 25.9 -0.3 43.3 44.1 26.3 27.2 28.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 27.4 26.9 24.4 -0.1 47.3 47.6 26.2 27.0 27.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 27.7 27.2 25.6 -0.1 47.8 48.1 26.4 27.3 28.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 26.9 26.5 24.9 0.0 49.9 49.9 25.7 26.5 27.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 28.0 27.7 24.8 0.1 51.6 51.4 26.7 27.6 28.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 27.3 26.8 25.5 -0.2 46.2 46.4 26.2 27.0 27.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 28.7 28.1 26.8 -0.2 45.0 45.3 27.5 28.3 29.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 28.6 28.2 25.2 0.0 50.3 50.2 27.3 28.2 29.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 26.9 26.7 27.3 0.1 52.5 51.1 25.8 26.6 27.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 26.6 26.2 23.7 -0.1 47.7 47.9 25.5 26.3 27.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 27.1 26.6 27.3 -0.2 46.0 45.9 25.9 26.7 27.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 22.4 22.0 21.6 0.0 50.1 50.1 21.1 22.0 22.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 27.7 26.9 26.8 -0.4 40.9 42.0 26.4 27.3 28.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 27.4 27.1 27.2 0.1 51.8 50.5 26.2 27.1 27.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 27.3 26.9 27.3 -0.1 48.6 48.1 26.2 27.0 27.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 27.0 26.4 25.5 -0.2 45.5 45.8 25.8 26.6 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 27.8 27.0 25.6 -0.4 42.2 43.2 26.5 27.4 28.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 27.5 27.6 24.7 0.4 58.3 56.8 26.4 27.2 28.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 27.3 26.7 26.3 -0.2 44.7 45.2 26.1 26.9 27.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 28.7 28.2 25.8 -0.1 46.5 46.7 27.5 28.4 29.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.0 21.5 22.9 -0.1 48.2 48.4 20.7 21.6 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 27.4 26.8 27.3 -0.3 45.1 45.2 26.2 27.0 27.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------