***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.06.2016.-19.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 14.7 18.6 17.7 103.7 65.7 50.9 5.3 10.7 18.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 16.2 19.3 13.4 99.3 64.1 50.9 5.7 11.9 20.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 22.2 29.7 16.1 108.1 66.7 51.7 6.8 15.5 28.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 19.4 27.8 20.9 118.6 69.1 54.8 5.7 13.0 24.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 22.1 23.2 19.0 125.6 71.6 60.0 5.1 10.8 19.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 14.1 20.9 22.6 116.4 68.4 61.3 6.2 11.8 19.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 14.5 18.6 15.8 103.9 66.2 50.2 4.9 10.3 18.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 31.8 37.2 25.1 140.1 75.5 66.8 11.2 19.0 28.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 17.4 27.9 19.9 131.3 73.0 61.2 6.6 13.2 22.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 33.0 36.4 23.6 129.9 72.6 62.3 10.2 18.5 30.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 22.4 25.3 19.9 134.4 73.9 62.2 7.0 12.6 20.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 17.4 20.4 21.1 144.3 76.5 68.2 4.1 8.2 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 12.7 18.5 19.6 115.8 68.5 60.2 5.1 9.9 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 22.3 29.2 20.7 112.9 67.5 56.3 8.6 16.4 27.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 4.5 15.0 17.5 109.8 67.5 52.6 3.9 8.1 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 14.2 14.9 19.2 125.7 71.4 60.6 4.2 7.8 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 12.9 17.1 15.0 108.2 67.3 54.2 4.9 9.7 16.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 27.1 32.1 25.1 136.4 74.8 64.3 8.1 15.0 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 17.6 21.0 13.1 97.6 63.5 51.9 6.5 13.2 22.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 25.1 28.5 23.8 130.6 73.1 63.9 8.1 14.6 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 15.7 19.6 16.8 110.3 66.4 54.8 6.5 12.0 19.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 13.1 17.4 15.4 113.0 68.5 55.9 5.3 9.8 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 14.3 16.9 13.9 95.4 63.0 53.1 5.2 10.7 18.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 27.2 37.0 19.2 116.3 68.5 57.4 11.9 21.4 34.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 17.8 24.3 20.7 111.5 68.0 56.0 6.3 13.0 22.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 12.7 24.5 18.8 136.0 74.2 66.7 4.9 10.2 18.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 18.2 24.2 20.4 110.2 67.7 53.6 7.5 13.8 22.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 14.8 20.4 20.1 117.8 69.2 55.3 5.6 10.9 18.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 35.8 39.5 24.7 132.0 73.4 63.8 13.4 22.0 32.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.2 18.5 13.7 93.3 62.6 48.7 5.2 11.5 20.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------