***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.06.2016.-26.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 19.8 27.2 20.8 163.2 80.1 61.0 5.3 10.3 17.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 13.5 31.6 22.6 180.6 84.1 59.1 5.0 10.0 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 15.7 34.3 22.2 182.1 83.7 61.6 6.5 12.0 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.8 25.5 17.7 160.4 79.5 57.1 3.7 8.3 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 14.6 40.0 20.5 178.4 83.1 59.9 4.4 10.2 19.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.2 14.8 16.0 121.4 70.5 55.5 3.7 7.4 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 13.4 29.2 19.7 161.4 79.6 57.7 4.5 9.7 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 5.8 31.9 19.5 153.2 78.2 55.5 4.8 10.8 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.6 23.1 19.8 164.4 80.5 55.3 3.4 7.3 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 14.8 33.4 22.1 167.0 80.8 58.6 4.8 10.4 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 12.0 26.6 20.8 157.8 79.6 58.4 3.6 8.2 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.8 19.5 18.4 151.0 77.9 56.5 3.2 6.9 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.2 16.0 18.9 141.8 75.7 60.4 3.4 6.9 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 26.6 37.0 24.0 158.9 79.0 62.0 6.4 13.4 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.8 16.9 17.5 166.0 80.6 54.1 2.6 5.5 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.0 18.0 18.9 142.6 76.0 58.1 3.5 7.2 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 14.3 30.6 19.9 163.7 80.9 58.3 5.1 10.4 18.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.0 26.1 21.9 153.8 78.3 57.2 3.4 8.1 15.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 14.5 34.6 23.2 184.1 84.3 60.9 5.3 10.6 18.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 11.6 24.5 23.8 167.5 81.5 61.2 5.0 9.1 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.2 30.5 21.2 175.5 82.4 58.9 3.4 8.1 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 13.0 25.3 20.6 154.4 78.5 59.9 4.7 9.4 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 22.5 36.6 23.5 188.1 84.6 64.3 6.9 12.5 20.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 17.5 37.6 22.5 165.8 80.4 61.4 6.6 13.0 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 16.8 23.9 22.1 164.3 80.8 65.4 5.0 9.3 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.9 16.2 14.9 133.8 73.7 58.1 3.5 7.2 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 21.1 28.4 21.2 152.8 78.2 62.6 5.5 11.0 18.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.3 11.9 17.0 162.4 79.8 55.0 2.6 4.9 7.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.4 34.8 23.3 150.0 77.5 58.1 7.4 14.3 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 14.5 33.0 23.0 188.7 84.8 59.8 6.1 11.1 17.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------