***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.06.2016.-03.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 6.3 19.1 11.4 114.9 69.4 47.5 6.5 11.3 17.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 7.1 20.0 9.5 112.3 69.1 50.1 7.7 12.4 18.5 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 5.9 19.2 10.9 119.2 70.6 47.6 6.1 10.7 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 4.4 11.2 8.1 81.6 58.9 41.7 4.2 8.4 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.4 10.7 8.8 92.5 63.3 43.9 3.5 6.9 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 3.0 8.9 9.8 81.5 59.0 42.0 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 4.9 13.1 8.3 97.9 64.9 46.7 5.2 8.8 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 8.6 24.9 10.1 90.2 61.9 38.7 9.2 17.2 28.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 4.2 12.1 10.2 94.1 63.7 42.8 4.4 8.0 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 6.3 17.4 11.6 92.6 63.2 41.8 6.3 11.7 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 3.8 11.2 7.9 89.6 62.2 41.1 3.7 7.4 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 4.8 15.1 8.8 98.7 64.5 41.8 5.3 9.7 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 2.5 8.5 9.5 98.3 64.9 44.5 2.8 5.3 8.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 7.1 23.1 13.2 105.5 67.2 46.9 7.4 13.6 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.6 8.8 6.6 78.2 58.4 39.2 2.4 5.9 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 2.6 9.3 8.6 94.2 64.1 44.2 2.4 5.4 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 6.2 18.5 9.1 103.5 66.3 48.2 5.6 10.8 18.3 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 8.8 20.7 13.6 94.4 63.5 43.8 9.3 14.9 22.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 5.3 19.0 10.2 120.8 71.3 50.6 5.7 10.2 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 6.0 17.0 13.8 94.6 62.3 41.7 6.4 11.7 18.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 6.5 19.4 10.2 104.3 66.7 44.1 6.2 11.7 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 8.0 20.1 9.1 98.1 64.8 46.5 8.1 13.6 20.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 6.6 21.3 10.7 122.2 71.6 49.4 6.6 11.6 18.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 8.6 24.1 11.5 99.0 64.9 44.5 9.1 15.8 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 5.5 14.9 11.2 102.6 66.1 45.3 5.6 9.6 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 2.9 9.5 7.0 96.9 64.0 42.9 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 7.3 21.2 12.4 111.3 68.3 47.3 7.5 12.8 19.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.1 8.6 7.7 83.4 60.0 42.0 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 9.6 27.2 14.2 97.6 63.9 44.7 9.8 18.0 28.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 7.3 20.2 9.5 108.9 68.4 48.1 7.5 12.5 19.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------