***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.07.2016.-10.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 3.5 21.1 11.6 126.7 73.0 48.5 3.4 8.3 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 4.6 17.4 10.2 127.9 72.5 50.0 4.6 8.7 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 4.0 19.6 12.1 134.4 74.3 49.7 3.8 8.3 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 3.9 14.6 10.2 116.8 70.5 48.5 4.0 7.5 12.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 4.0 16.0 10.1 118.5 71.1 48.6 3.8 7.7 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.1 12.5 12.3 121.8 71.5 48.4 4.0 6.9 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 5.6 19.7 10.2 121.3 70.9 49.4 5.3 10.2 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 8.4 22.2 10.3 106.2 66.9 42.8 9.1 14.8 21.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 4.6 19.3 11.5 121.7 71.8 47.3 4.3 9.0 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 5.9 20.6 12.0 110.5 68.5 45.3 5.8 11.2 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 3.5 13.3 8.8 108.4 68.3 44.6 3.5 7.1 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 3.9 15.4 9.3 116.3 69.7 44.8 4.2 8.2 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 2.5 10.2 12.0 126.2 72.5 48.4 2.6 4.9 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 5.9 24.6 15.3 128.2 73.0 49.2 5.5 11.1 19.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.1 11.4 10.0 141.8 76.0 48.5 1.9 4.2 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.9 11.3 10.9 123.5 72.0 48.1 4.1 6.6 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 1.9 6.7 8.9 110.8 67.6 47.3 1.8 3.6 6.4 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 7.7 18.7 13.8 106.4 67.1 47.3 8.1 12.7 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 4.9 20.6 11.1 138.3 75.0 50.8 5.2 9.5 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 7.3 18.4 13.0 105.3 66.5 48.3 7.5 12.2 18.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 4.6 19.7 11.1 120.6 71.6 47.2 4.3 9.0 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.7 14.7 10.4 121.1 70.8 48.4 4.7 8.3 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 5.8 24.0 12.6 152.7 77.9 51.0 5.9 10.5 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 6.1 19.9 13.2 116.0 69.7 48.2 5.8 10.8 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.8 15.6 12.1 125.0 72.7 50.1 3.8 7.4 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 2.6 11.2 9.3 135.0 74.5 48.8 2.9 5.3 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 3.5 17.8 13.0 134.6 74.5 50.8 3.4 7.3 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 2.5 13.5 10.9 131.4 73.7 48.5 2.3 5.3 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 9.9 22.7 13.5 101.4 65.2 46.5 10.3 16.0 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 5.0 18.7 11.3 136.1 74.6 50.9 5.0 8.9 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------