***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.06.2016.-10.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 65.6 86.7 61.6 125.8 72.1 60.9 41.0 58.1 77.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 67.3 86.8 55.7 131.3 74.7 60.0 47.8 61.3 76.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 77.4 106.3 61.3 135.4 76.1 61.8 50.8 68.6 89.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 64.4 81.6 56.9 120.3 69.4 57.8 36.8 54.7 76.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 62.0 85.3 58.4 130.7 73.7 60.5 37.4 54.1 73.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 49.8 57.6 60.6 111.1 64.8 57.8 31.6 44.4 59.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 65.2 79.1 54.1 121.8 70.2 57.5 43.4 58.1 74.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 92.2 118.4 65.1 126.2 72.4 60.5 61.8 82.6 106.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 62.6 81.8 61.4 129.3 73.5 59.7 41.5 55.7 71.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 84.0 106.6 69.3 127.0 72.8 60.5 56.7 74.9 95.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 57.7 76.9 57.4 127.8 72.8 60.8 35.4 50.2 67.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 51.2 74.5 57.5 131.7 74.4 63.2 29.5 44.3 61.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 52.8 53.8 59.9 121.5 69.8 61.5 26.1 37.3 50.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 90.6 112.7 73.2 126.3 72.5 59.1 63.3 81.9 102.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 39.0 54.9 51.6 122.7 70.1 59.3 16.9 30.4 48.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 42.4 54.0 57.6 123.9 70.9 61.5 27.8 37.9 49.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 57.0 72.1 53.0 123.4 71.2 58.2 35.8 49.9 65.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 75.3 95.0 74.4 123.9 71.4 60.1 50.4 67.4 87.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 69.8 94.1 57.6 135.5 76.5 61.5 48.3 63.2 79.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 69.6 89.2 74.5 125.6 72.8 61.7 46.7 62.2 79.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 67.7 88.8 59.2 128.1 72.8 59.8 42.5 59.1 78.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 62.5 76.3 55.5 123.7 70.9 58.5 42.9 56.3 70.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 81.7 91.7 60.7 137.7 77.4 62.6 52.7 65.4 79.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 94.4 116.9 66.4 124.9 71.8 58.9 65.4 85.2 107.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 74.4 78.8 66.2 125.7 71.9 62.4 41.4 55.6 71.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 45 55 100 56.6 62.3 50.1 127.8 72.3 64.4 26.7 39.3 54.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 70.0 90.7 67.0 125.9 72.2 62.3 46.1 62.7 81.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 44.5 57.1 55.7 123.5 70.6 60.0 26.3 38.1 52.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 100.9 122.4 75.8 121.7 70.5 59.8 69.9 91.0 114.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 70.1 87.4 57.5 130.9 74.5 59.5 51.4 64.6 78.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------