***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.06.2021.-20.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 14.7 14.1 16.7 -0.4 43.0 43.5 13.7 14.5 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 14.2 13.6 16.7 -0.3 44.8 45.2 12.9 13.9 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 15.9 15.3 16.8 -0.4 42.6 43.1 14.7 15.7 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 9.4 9.6 13.5 -0.8 31.9 33.0 9.7 10.8 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 11.4 11.5 14.2 -0.9 29.5 31.0 11.7 12.7 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 84 16 0 100 9.9 9.8 10.7 -1.5 17.8 20.0 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 14.3 14.1 16.8 0.0 49.2 49.3 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 4.7 4.9 11.2 -1.0 27.8 29.6 5.3 6.4 7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 14.2 13.0 14.6 -0.7 33.5 34.7 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 12.7 12.8 12.5 -0.8 32.5 33.9 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 12.5 12.6 13.8 -0.9 28.8 30.2 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 76 24 0 100 10.0 10.1 12.2 -1.2 23.8 25.6 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 93 7 0 100 11.3 11.0 12.0 -1.7 14.1 16.4 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 14.6 13.7 14.4 -0.5 38.3 39.5 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 13.8 13.9 15.5 -0.9 29.6 30.8 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 89 11 0 100 12.1 11.9 12.8 -1.5 17.1 18.9 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 89 11 100 14.6 14.6 16.8 0.2 53.2 53.0 13.5 14.5 15.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 12.6 11.6 12.0 -0.6 36.0 37.3 11.4 12.3 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 14.2 13.8 16.7 -0.2 45.3 45.7 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 6.9 7.0 9.8 -1.0 28.3 30.3 7.2 8.1 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 14.0 13.1 15.8 -0.6 37.7 38.5 12.8 13.7 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 13.8 13.8 17.0 0.2 53.5 53.3 12.8 13.6 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 13.7 13.1 16.5 -0.4 42.7 43.2 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 14.1 13.4 14.6 -0.4 41.8 42.6 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 12.2 12.2 14.9 -1.1 28.2 29.3 12.6 13.6 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 93 7 0 100 10.9 10.6 10.8 -1.7 14.7 16.9 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 13.9 12.6 15.8 -0.7 35.9 36.7 12.4 13.5 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 11.6 11.7 14.1 -0.9 29.7 31.1 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.9 9.4 11.1 -0.7 32.4 34.1 9.4 10.5 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 14.4 13.9 16.9 -0.3 44.5 44.9 13.2 14.2 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------