***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.06.2021.-04.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 16.3 16.3 18.9 1.1 69.7 63.1 14.8 15.5 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 16.4 16.3 18.9 1.0 68.1 62.2 14.4 15.3 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 18.2 18.4 19.3 1.2 72.6 65.3 16.3 17.2 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 13.8 14.0 16.5 1.2 73.8 66.8 11.6 12.6 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.5 15.1 16.3 0.9 68.0 62.6 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.3 13.7 14.1 0.7 65.3 61.6 12.1 12.9 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 16.5 16.6 19.0 1.1 70.2 63.6 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 8.6 9.2 14.1 0.8 67.8 63.4 7.4 8.3 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 16.1 16.1 16.4 0.9 68.0 62.4 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 15.8 15.9 14.9 0.9 69.3 63.9 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.2 15.6 15.8 0.7 65.0 61.1 14.0 14.8 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 13.2 13.7 14.9 0.7 65.6 61.8 12.0 12.9 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 14.7 14.9 13.9 0.5 60.7 58.1 13.5 14.3 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 16.7 16.9 16.7 1.1 73.6 65.8 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 16.9 17.2 18.0 1.2 73.1 66.4 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 15.7 16.1 15.0 0.7 64.1 60.4 14.4 15.4 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 16.9 17.0 18.8 1.1 70.5 63.7 15.1 16.0 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 14.6 14.9 14.2 1.1 74.4 67.1 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 16.2 16.3 19.0 1.1 69.1 63.0 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 10.6 10.8 11.9 1.0 72.8 66.7 8.8 9.6 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 16.0 16.2 18.0 1.1 71.7 64.7 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 15.9 16.1 18.9 1.3 73.1 66.0 14.1 14.9 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 15.8 15.8 18.9 1.1 70.5 63.9 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 16.4 16.7 16.5 1.1 74.6 66.6 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 15.9 15.9 17.2 0.9 68.3 62.3 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.4 14.6 13.7 0.5 60.4 58.2 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 15.9 15.9 18.0 1.0 68.7 62.3 14.0 14.9 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 15.0 15.2 16.9 1.2 72.9 66.4 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 13.3 13.6 13.7 1.1 74.9 67.8 11.4 12.3 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 16.6 16.6 19.1 1.1 69.1 62.9 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------