***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.06.2021.-11.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 15.6 15.9 18.8 1.3 82.7 76.0 14.8 15.1 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 15.6 16.1 18.7 1.2 80.4 74.6 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 17.4 17.9 19.1 1.2 82.2 76.0 16.0 16.6 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 12.7 13.2 16.1 1.0 81.3 74.9 11.1 11.8 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 14.1 14.3 16.2 0.8 75.2 69.7 12.9 13.4 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 12.9 12.9 13.4 0.5 67.1 63.6 11.9 12.4 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 15.7 16.2 18.9 1.3 83.6 77.1 14.4 14.9 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 8.2 8.3 13.6 0.7 72.9 68.1 6.9 7.5 8.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 15.3 15.5 16.3 0.8 75.6 70.3 14.1 14.6 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 15.1 15.3 14.6 0.8 76.2 70.8 14.0 14.5 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 15.0 15.1 15.7 0.7 71.0 66.7 13.8 14.4 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 12.9 13.0 14.6 0.6 69.7 65.5 11.8 12.3 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 14.0 14.1 13.8 0.2 59.0 57.1 13.3 13.8 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 15.9 16.3 16.4 1.0 80.9 74.6 14.6 15.2 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 16.5 16.9 17.7 1.0 80.3 74.7 15.2 15.8 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 15.4 15.3 14.8 0.4 64.8 61.7 14.2 14.7 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 16.1 16.7 18.7 1.4 84.7 78.0 14.8 15.4 15.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 13.8 14.1 14.0 0.9 80.9 74.3 12.5 13.0 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 15.4 15.8 18.8 1.2 80.3 74.7 14.2 14.7 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 9.6 9.8 11.6 0.8 76.9 70.9 8.4 8.9 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 15.1 15.6 17.8 1.1 80.8 74.2 13.9 14.5 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 15.2 15.8 18.8 1.5 85.4 79.0 13.9 14.4 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 14.8 15.2 18.6 1.2 79.4 74.1 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 15.6 16.2 16.3 1.1 82.6 76.0 14.1 14.7 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 15.1 15.3 17.1 0.9 77.3 71.0 13.9 14.4 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 13.6 13.7 13.3 0.3 59.7 57.5 12.9 13.4 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 15.1 15.5 17.9 1.1 80.3 73.8 13.7 14.3 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 14.3 14.6 16.5 1.0 79.6 73.9 13.0 13.6 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 12.3 12.7 13.3 0.9 80.0 73.4 11.0 11.6 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 15.8 16.2 18.9 1.2 80.9 75.1 14.4 15.0 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------