***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.06.2021.-27.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 29.2 31.1 30.6 3.3 87.5 78.4 25.9 27.3 28.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 28.9 30.2 30.5 2.9 82.9 75.1 25.5 26.9 28.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 29.0 30.7 30.8 3.2 85.4 76.9 25.6 27.1 28.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 22.1 24.0 27.5 3.1 88.1 78.9 18.6 20.1 21.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 29.5 30.9 28.0 2.6 82.7 74.8 25.9 27.5 29.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 27.7 28.6 24.5 1.8 76.2 70.6 24.5 26.1 27.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 28.7 30.4 30.5 3.2 86.2 77.3 25.3 26.8 28.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 17.5 18.6 25.7 2.4 80.3 73.4 14.1 15.6 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 29.0 30.3 28.5 2.5 81.6 74.0 25.4 27.0 28.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 28.8 30.1 26.6 2.6 82.2 74.6 25.2 26.8 28.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 29.0 30.0 27.9 2.3 79.1 72.4 25.5 27.1 28.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 28.0 28.9 27.0 2.2 77.7 71.4 24.8 26.3 27.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 29.1 29.4 26.5 1.7 72.1 67.4 25.7 27.3 28.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 29.1 30.8 28.6 3.1 86.2 76.6 25.5 27.0 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 29.9 31.3 29.7 2.8 85.0 76.9 26.8 28.2 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 29.7 30.4 27.1 2.0 75.7 70.0 26.3 27.9 29.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 28.4 30.1 30.5 3.4 86.8 77.6 24.9 26.4 27.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 28.1 29.8 25.9 2.8 84.3 75.6 24.6 26.2 27.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 28.4 29.7 30.6 3.0 82.9 75.2 25.1 26.5 27.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 24.2 25.5 23.5 2.6 83.6 75.8 20.3 22.0 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 29.1 30.7 29.8 3.0 85.1 76.4 25.6 27.1 28.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 29.0 31.1 30.7 3.6 88.3 78.8 25.3 26.9 28.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 28.8 30.1 30.5 3.0 82.9 75.1 25.4 26.9 28.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 28.6 30.2 28.4 3.0 85.3 76.3 25.0 26.6 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 29.2 30.9 28.7 2.9 85.8 76.7 25.8 27.3 28.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 28.5 29.1 26.1 1.7 73.3 68.5 25.2 26.8 28.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 28.7 30.4 29.6 3.1 87.0 77.9 25.3 26.8 28.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 30.1 31.7 28.2 2.9 85.6 77.3 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 23.8 25.4 25.0 2.7 84.6 75.9 19.8 21.5 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 28.8 30.2 30.6 3.1 84.0 76.0 25.4 26.9 28.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------