***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.07.2021.-11.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 29.5 30.1 31.4 2.5 79.2 71.9 27.2 28.2 29.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 29.3 29.8 31.2 2.3 76.3 69.2 26.9 28.0 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 29.4 30.0 31.7 2.6 78.9 71.5 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 22.9 23.8 29.3 2.6 81.3 73.0 19.7 21.0 22.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 30.0 30.4 29.1 2.1 75.0 68.5 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 28.7 28.8 25.8 1.5 70.5 64.4 25.7 27.1 28.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 29.2 29.8 31.1 2.4 78.1 70.5 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 17.7 18.1 27.3 1.9 73.4 66.6 15.0 16.3 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 29.3 29.8 29.1 2.0 74.4 68.1 26.9 28.1 29.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 29.1 29.7 27.9 2.1 75.3 68.1 26.7 27.8 28.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 29.5 29.7 28.7 1.8 71.4 65.7 26.8 28.1 29.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 28.5 28.7 28.7 1.7 70.8 65.1 25.9 27.2 28.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 29.7 29.7 27.3 1.4 67.3 62.7 27.0 28.3 29.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 28.9 29.6 29.2 2.6 80.5 71.8 26.7 27.7 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 30.7 31.4 30.4 2.4 79.4 71.9 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 30.6 30.6 28.2 1.7 70.7 65.2 27.6 28.9 30.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 28.8 29.4 31.0 2.4 78.7 70.5 26.3 27.4 28.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 28.2 29.0 27.4 2.4 78.7 70.1 25.8 26.9 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 28.9 29.4 31.4 2.4 76.7 69.7 26.4 27.5 28.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 24.2 24.8 24.6 2.1 76.6 68.1 21.2 22.5 23.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 29.5 30.2 30.5 2.5 78.5 71.2 26.9 28.0 29.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 29.4 30.2 31.1 2.6 80.3 71.8 26.9 28.0 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 29.2 29.6 31.4 2.4 77.4 70.2 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 28.6 29.3 29.2 2.5 79.5 71.3 26.3 27.4 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 29.7 30.4 29.4 2.5 79.5 72.0 26.9 28.1 29.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 29.4 29.3 28.0 1.3 66.4 62.2 26.6 28.0 29.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 29.0 29.7 30.3 2.5 79.6 72.1 26.4 27.6 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 30.8 31.4 29.5 2.4 79.0 71.4 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 23.7 24.5 26.2 2.3 78.2 69.4 21.0 22.3 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 29.1 29.6 31.3 2.3 76.9 69.8 26.6 27.8 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------