***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.06.2021.-11.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 28.6 29.3 30.2 2.3 86.1 79.4 27.1 27.7 28.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 28.4 29.0 30.2 2.1 82.6 77.0 26.5 27.3 28.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 28.4 29.2 30.4 2.2 84.2 77.7 26.5 27.3 28.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 21.5 22.5 27.2 2.0 85.6 77.1 19.5 20.4 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 28.7 29.3 27.5 1.5 77.2 70.3 26.9 27.8 28.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 26.7 27.0 23.9 0.5 62.6 58.7 25.6 26.4 27.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 28.2 29.1 30.2 2.3 86.2 79.9 26.3 27.1 27.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 16.7 16.9 25.3 1.2 73.1 66.6 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 28.3 28.8 27.9 1.5 77.0 70.4 26.4 27.3 28.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 28.1 28.5 26.2 1.4 77.0 69.9 26.3 27.1 27.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 28.3 28.5 27.3 1.1 70.7 65.4 26.5 27.4 28.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 26.8 27.4 26.6 1.0 68.2 63.1 25.7 26.5 27.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 28.0 28.1 25.8 0.4 58.4 55.7 26.8 27.6 28.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 28.1 29.0 28.2 2.2 86.8 79.4 26.3 27.1 27.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 29.5 30.1 29.1 1.8 81.7 74.8 27.6 28.4 29.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 28.6 29.1 26.5 0.8 65.6 61.3 27.3 28.2 29.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 27.9 28.9 30.3 2.6 88.3 81.8 25.9 26.7 27.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 27.4 28.1 25.6 1.7 81.8 73.4 25.6 26.4 27.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 27.9 28.5 30.4 2.2 82.6 77.1 26.0 26.8 27.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 23.1 23.6 22.9 1.4 78.5 70.2 21.2 22.1 22.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 28.5 29.3 29.3 2.0 82.9 75.6 26.5 27.4 28.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 28.5 29.6 30.4 2.8 90.0 83.8 26.3 27.2 28.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 28.1 28.8 30.3 2.2 82.4 76.7 26.3 27.1 27.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 27.7 28.6 28.0 2.0 84.3 76.6 25.9 26.7 27.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 28.5 29.4 28.2 1.9 83.4 76.0 26.6 27.5 28.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 27.5 27.6 25.5 0.3 57.1 54.7 26.4 27.2 28.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 28.1 28.9 29.2 2.2 85.5 78.5 26.2 27.0 27.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 29.5 30.2 27.8 1.7 81.4 74.0 27.6 28.4 29.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 22.8 23.5 24.6 1.6 81.8 73.4 20.8 21.7 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 28.2 28.8 30.3 2.2 83.0 77.3 26.3 27.1 27.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------