***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.06.2021.-20.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 4.7 5.8 6.2 31.2 34.0 26.5 5.5 10.7 18.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 83 17 0 100 3.9 4.9 4.3 24.7 27.8 19.1 6.3 12.1 20.6 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 4.6 5.8 5.8 31.0 33.2 24.9 5.8 12.9 23.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 5.6 8.9 10.5 52.5 42.9 34.3 5.6 12.0 21.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 5.1 9.4 10.3 51.7 43.6 32.9 5.9 12.1 21.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 14.2 10.5 16.6 74.3 51.1 42.6 4.9 10.0 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 77 23 0 100 4.6 4.8 4.2 23.3 27.3 20.1 6.4 12.4 21.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 9.4 17.9 16.4 66.1 48.0 36.8 10.8 19.1 30.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 5.9 9.7 10.4 51.3 43.0 32.7 6.5 12.2 20.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 9.0 16.2 15.3 60.5 46.1 35.1 10.1 18.4 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 5.2 10.6 11.7 58.0 47.4 35.0 5.8 11.6 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 4.1 8.8 12.9 66.3 49.5 37.6 4.6 9.0 15.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 4.9 9.3 11.5 59.5 47.7 36.7 5.1 10.2 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 80 20 0 100 6.9 7.2 5.9 24.8 25.0 18.0 10.0 18.4 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 2.6 4.3 7.4 41.2 41.8 31.7 2.7 6.1 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 4.8 9.6 12.7 66.0 50.3 38.7 5.2 9.6 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 84 16 0 100 3.1 3.4 4.2 23.2 25.9 17.7 5.0 10.2 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 7.5 9.9 13.4 51.9 38.7 31.4 8.0 14.0 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 81 19 0 100 4.1 5.4 4.7 26.7 29.6 20.1 6.4 12.9 22.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 7.0 10.6 15.9 61.2 42.5 33.7 7.4 13.3 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 5.5 7.8 8.4 42.9 39.4 30.3 6.1 11.1 18.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 85 15 0 100 2.4 2.7 3.9 22.4 25.7 16.7 4.1 7.8 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 4.0 5.3 5.4 29.1 32.0 21.3 5.5 11.0 19.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 10.6 12.8 8.2 37.1 33.2 25.8 12.6 21.2 32.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 5.7 7.0 7.1 33.7 34.7 26.9 6.5 12.8 21.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 4.7 7.4 8.6 49.8 40.9 32.2 5.1 10.6 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 6.1 7.2 6.5 31.5 33.4 25.9 7.2 13.2 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 4.8 8.3 11.5 56.2 46.1 36.2 5.0 9.5 15.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 9.5 11.3 11.8 45.2 34.1 28.2 10.9 18.7 29.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 79 21 0 100 3.9 4.6 4.5 25.6 28.8 21.1 5.8 11.8 20.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------