***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.06.2021.-27.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 4.1 12.1 13.9 91.2 60.3 41.5 4.5 8.6 14.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 5.1 13.9 11.9 89.6 60.4 44.7 5.2 9.9 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 6.1 14.9 14.0 85.0 57.4 44.0 6.0 11.7 19.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 3.8 10.7 14.6 88.1 58.5 44.1 3.6 7.8 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 4.4 11.3 13.3 81.2 56.2 43.9 4.0 8.9 16.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.9 5.8 13.6 72.6 50.2 39.9 2.7 5.8 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 4.6 13.6 12.0 93.1 61.4 43.5 4.4 9.0 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 5.3 10.8 12.4 69.0 50.3 39.0 5.3 10.8 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.5 8.0 14.1 80.6 55.2 40.9 2.8 6.5 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.5 9.7 13.5 71.3 51.4 39.4 3.9 9.2 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 10.1 8.4 13.4 81.4 55.5 45.7 2.9 6.8 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 2.8 6.3 11.3 74.4 52.7 42.0 2.4 5.6 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.0 7.0 14.3 83.3 56.6 47.4 2.5 5.5 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 6.7 13.0 13.2 68.9 50.9 39.9 6.4 12.6 21.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.7 8.0 13.1 92.6 61.2 45.2 2.6 5.4 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 2.6 6.1 12.4 75.7 52.4 41.4 2.7 5.5 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 4.6 13.5 11.0 88.3 60.5 42.5 4.6 9.4 16.2 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.3 7.9 13.7 65.5 48.9 38.2 3.5 8.3 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 4.8 12.8 11.8 83.6 57.5 43.6 4.8 9.7 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 4.4 7.5 13.5 63.3 45.6 35.8 4.5 8.7 14.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 4.3 11.2 13.3 79.7 55.3 38.5 4.1 9.2 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 5.0 13.2 10.7 80.2 57.3 41.2 4.9 10.2 18.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 5.2 12.2 11.6 75.4 53.8 41.1 5.5 10.8 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 7.7 15.0 14.0 74.4 53.2 41.9 7.0 13.4 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 5.4 12.9 16.1 92.2 60.3 44.9 5.3 9.5 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 8.4 9.1 13.4 92.9 60.4 52.7 3.0 6.3 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 4.9 14.0 15.8 94.1 61.1 44.1 4.8 9.6 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.5 5.6 12.9 84.1 57.3 42.6 2.6 4.5 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 8.0 15.1 16.8 75.8 52.1 42.4 7.3 14.2 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 6.5 15.9 12.6 88.2 59.3 43.3 6.6 12.0 19.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------