***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.06.2021.-04.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 7.7 16.9 10.5 83.8 60.1 42.5 8.1 13.2 19.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 7.9 16.4 8.5 78.5 58.9 41.4 8.5 13.3 19.3 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 5.9 14.2 10.9 84.5 60.3 42.1 5.9 10.5 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 4.3 11.8 9.9 86.6 60.1 43.2 4.4 8.4 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 3.8 11.6 9.9 90.5 61.7 42.8 4.1 7.8 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 4.4 11.1 12.1 92.4 61.2 45.5 4.4 7.9 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 6.1 15.1 9.4 88.6 62.1 42.9 6.6 11.0 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 8.5 22.3 11.8 88.6 60.5 42.2 8.8 16.3 26.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 3.6 10.4 10.8 87.2 60.4 42.7 3.7 7.3 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 8.6 18.5 12.3 86.2 59.7 42.4 9.3 14.7 21.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 4.4 12.4 8.4 88.2 61.0 41.1 5.0 9.0 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 6.4 15.2 9.0 89.1 60.9 41.9 7.0 11.5 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 3.7 9.4 10.2 97.6 64.4 45.8 4.0 6.5 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 9.2 18.7 11.6 72.5 54.0 39.7 9.4 16.6 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.5 10.1 6.9 78.4 58.8 42.9 2.9 7.0 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 2.8 9.2 9.2 90.4 61.4 43.2 2.8 6.0 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 5.0 15.4 8.7 80.9 59.9 41.2 5.5 11.0 18.8 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 7.2 17.3 14.1 86.4 58.5 42.9 7.3 13.3 21.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 5.3 12.1 8.4 74.3 57.2 40.3 5.4 9.8 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 6.9 16.9 14.7 93.0 60.6 44.8 7.0 12.4 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 5.5 14.8 10.6 85.2 60.2 41.2 6.0 10.8 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 6.3 13.8 8.2 68.0 54.5 39.1 6.8 11.9 19.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 7.7 16.2 8.9 73.5 56.1 38.7 8.1 13.7 21.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 8.4 19.2 12.4 83.0 57.9 42.2 8.3 15.0 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 5.4 13.4 11.2 87.1 60.7 43.7 6.0 10.1 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 4.0 11.1 8.6 106.3 66.8 46.2 4.1 7.1 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 8.7 19.7 10.6 82.8 59.4 43.0 9.4 15.6 23.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.7 9.5 8.6 82.3 59.2 43.1 3.2 6.8 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 9.9 22.9 15.3 88.8 58.9 44.4 9.3 17.3 28.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 8.2 17.8 9.5 82.9 60.4 42.8 8.7 13.8 20.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------