***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.07.2021.-11.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 3.0 11.0 8.7 79.0 59.1 39.2 3.1 7.4 14.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 3.6 10.8 7.8 83.0 60.3 38.1 3.8 7.5 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.8 10.7 8.9 76.8 58.1 38.2 3.8 8.0 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 3.5 10.8 8.7 81.4 59.4 41.0 3.7 7.7 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 3.0 8.6 8.0 72.2 56.7 37.9 3.0 6.5 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.2 10.3 11.3 88.4 61.4 44.4 4.0 7.4 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 3.7 10.3 7.4 78.2 58.5 37.3 3.7 7.6 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 7.7 15.4 8.8 68.0 53.1 36.8 8.2 14.1 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 4.2 12.2 9.2 74.7 57.8 38.6 4.3 9.0 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 5.1 12.3 10.0 71.6 55.1 38.1 5.3 10.4 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 3.2 7.1 6.1 63.5 52.7 35.2 3.2 6.6 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 3.8 9.7 6.9 71.0 55.5 37.3 3.7 7.9 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 2.7 7.9 8.5 80.5 60.0 40.7 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 5.1 10.5 9.9 61.1 52.2 38.3 5.3 9.9 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.3 7.5 7.2 89.3 62.9 43.7 2.3 4.8 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 3.5 8.3 7.8 76.7 58.3 39.6 3.8 6.6 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 1.6 4.9 7.4 83.3 60.1 37.5 1.6 3.4 6.0 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 7.0 13.7 11.9 76.6 56.1 40.2 7.6 11.9 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 5.1 13.6 8.0 77.8 58.5 38.0 5.5 10.4 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 6.5 12.8 12.2 78.5 54.6 40.8 6.3 11.3 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 4.2 12.3 8.6 74.6 57.9 37.8 4.6 9.3 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 4.4 10.3 7.6 74.7 56.7 37.5 4.5 8.4 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 4.4 10.0 8.1 67.6 55.2 37.6 4.6 8.5 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 4.9 11.9 10.2 71.2 55.3 39.9 5.3 10.1 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 3.5 10.7 9.8 85.1 61.3 41.9 3.7 7.2 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.7 7.4 6.8 87.1 61.8 42.7 2.6 5.1 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 3.1 9.7 9.4 81.6 60.1 41.0 3.3 6.7 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 2.8 9.0 8.2 81.1 59.9 41.6 2.7 6.1 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 9.7 18.4 12.3 76.5 54.5 40.9 10.1 16.4 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 3.6 10.0 8.3 81.4 59.7 38.2 3.3 7.1 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------