***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.06.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.06.2021.-11.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 34.3 42.5 39.3 67.0 37.9 34.9 38.2 54.4 73.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 43.8 50.2 32.5 63.7 36.8 34.0 47.4 60.3 74.9 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 44.0 50.6 39.6 66.4 37.3 34.7 46.7 63.6 83.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 33.3 42.5 43.6 74.5 40.9 38.0 35.2 51.8 71.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 34.7 43.6 41.6 71.4 40.1 36.6 37.1 53.2 72.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 27.8 38.0 53.7 79.7 42.9 38.8 30.7 43.5 58.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 39.5 46.8 33.0 64.8 37.3 34.5 43.0 57.7 73.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 52.7 62.6 49.4 72.0 36.5 35.2 58.4 79.8 104.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 35.2 43.3 44.6 71.2 39.0 35.8 38.1 52.8 68.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 48.4 57.8 51.2 71.2 36.8 34.9 53.8 72.8 94.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 31.2 37.7 39.7 72.3 39.2 36.8 32.7 47.2 64.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 27.7 35.8 40.1 73.9 39.8 37.2 30.1 44.7 62.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 22.6 32.4 44.6 77.4 43.7 39.1 25.3 37.2 51.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 54.9 52.6 40.7 54.1 26.2 26.7 60.0 78.9 100.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 16.8 22.9 34.5 70.6 41.9 37.9 16.6 29.7 47.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 25.5 32.8 42.1 75.5 41.5 38.2 27.7 38.5 51.0 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 32.2 37.9 31.3 62.6 36.5 33.4 35.1 48.9 64.7 29 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 40.4 46.3 53.1 67.9 32.4 32.4 46.7 63.3 82.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 43.3 48.6 32.9 61.6 35.4 33.2 46.7 62.2 79.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 42.0 46.6 56.2 71.7 32.4 33.7 47.0 61.7 77.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 37.4 45.5 40.9 67.9 37.8 34.5 41.0 57.2 75.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 36.9 40.5 30.4 57.4 33.6 31.7 39.8 53.9 69.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 49.3 52.0 34.0 58.7 32.8 31.4 52.3 64.3 77.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 52.4 58.6 44.8 63.8 32.9 31.9 58.6 79.2 102.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 37.4 45.5 44.1 70.3 38.8 35.4 41.1 54.9 70.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 24.7 34.3 37.4 78.7 44.7 40.6 25.9 38.5 53.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 40.3 49.9 42.4 68.5 38.3 35.3 45.1 61.3 79.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 22.8 30.3 41.3 73.4 41.6 38.0 24.4 36.6 51.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 55.8 62.1 56.3 69.3 31.4 32.1 64.5 86.4 111.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 49.3 55.3 34.9 65.1 37.4 34.8 52.1 64.6 77.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------