***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.06.2015.-28.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 13.9 14.3 17.1 -0.7 37.5 39.5 14.1 14.9 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 13.6 14.2 17.4 -0.6 39.3 41.4 13.8 14.8 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 15.3 15.6 16.9 -0.9 33.5 36.5 15.6 16.6 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 10.0 10.4 14.8 -0.9 31.0 34.7 10.5 11.7 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 12.0 12.2 14.4 -1.0 30.2 34.0 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 11.0 11.2 12.5 -1.0 30.1 33.7 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 14.0 14.5 17.5 -0.5 40.9 42.7 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 6.1 6.5 12.6 -0.8 33.4 36.8 6.5 7.6 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 13.5 13.6 14.7 -1.0 30.3 34.1 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 13.3 13.5 13.2 -1.0 30.4 34.3 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 13.3 13.5 14.0 -0.8 32.9 36.4 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 11.2 11.6 13.6 -0.7 34.7 37.8 11.5 12.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 12.6 12.7 12.9 -1.0 29.8 33.4 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 14.0 14.1 14.8 -1.0 29.7 34.0 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 14.5 14.8 15.7 -0.8 34.1 37.4 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 13.2 13.5 13.7 -0.9 31.7 35.1 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 14.4 14.8 16.9 -0.8 36.1 39.1 14.6 15.4 16.2 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 12.0 12.0 12.6 -1.0 29.0 32.9 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.1 14.1 17.3 -0.7 37.7 40.2 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 7.8 7.9 10.5 -1.1 28.0 31.9 8.1 8.9 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 13.4 13.6 16.0 -0.9 32.3 35.5 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 13.3 13.6 16.8 -0.9 34.0 37.5 13.6 14.4 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.6 13.5 16.8 -0.7 36.2 39.2 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 13.3 13.4 14.7 -1.0 30.1 34.0 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 13.1 13.5 15.5 -0.8 34.7 37.6 13.4 14.2 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 12.2 12.4 13.0 -0.9 30.5 33.6 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 13.0 13.5 16.3 -0.6 38.4 40.5 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 12.3 12.7 15.2 -0.8 33.2 36.6 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 10.2 10.3 11.8 -1.0 29.4 33.5 10.6 11.6 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 15.5 14.5 17.5 -0.6 38.9 40.9 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------