***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2015.-12.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 16.3 16.7 20.0 1.4 77.2 70.6 14.7 15.4 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 16.0 16.5 20.2 1.4 77.0 70.0 13.9 14.9 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 17.9 18.1 19.8 1.2 73.5 68.0 16.0 16.9 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 13.2 13.6 17.7 1.1 73.6 66.8 11.1 12.1 13.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 14.6 14.9 17.3 1.1 73.0 66.8 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 13.5 14.0 15.5 1.1 76.9 69.1 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 16.0 16.6 20.3 1.5 77.8 70.5 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 8.8 9.2 15.5 1.3 77.9 71.5 6.9 7.7 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 15.7 16.0 17.6 1.1 73.6 67.7 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 15.7 16.0 16.0 1.1 74.0 68.1 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 15.6 16.0 16.9 1.2 76.5 69.6 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 13.6 14.2 16.7 1.4 80.6 73.4 11.6 12.5 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 14.9 15.5 16.0 1.2 77.7 70.6 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 16.3 16.5 17.5 1.0 70.9 65.1 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 17.3 17.8 18.8 1.3 78.1 69.8 15.6 16.4 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 16.1 16.6 16.8 1.2 77.3 70.1 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 16.4 16.7 19.6 1.2 73.0 66.4 14.9 15.6 16.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 14.0 14.4 15.3 1.0 73.4 67.6 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 15.8 16.2 20.1 1.4 77.0 70.2 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 10.1 10.4 13.4 1.1 74.8 68.6 8.1 9.0 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 15.6 15.9 18.9 1.2 73.8 68.0 13.8 14.6 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 15.6 15.9 19.5 1.2 74.0 67.2 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 15.4 15.7 19.7 1.4 77.0 70.5 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 15.5 16.3 17.4 1.0 71.7 66.2 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 15.9 16.3 18.3 1.2 76.1 69.3 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 14.7 15.3 16.2 1.3 79.8 72.8 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 16.0 16.7 19.2 1.4 79.1 71.7 13.6 14.7 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 14.9 15.4 18.3 1.3 77.0 69.3 13.1 14.0 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 13.0 13.3 14.6 1.1 74.5 68.3 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 16.1 16.6 20.3 1.4 77.1 70.4 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------