***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2015.-21.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 25.3 25.4 25.7 -1.7 28.4 32.2 25.7 26.8 27.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 24.3 24.3 25.8 -1.9 27.9 31.3 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 23.8 23.6 25.1 -2.4 22.2 26.2 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 17.3 17.2 22.9 -1.9 23.7 27.8 18.0 19.2 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 24.4 23.9 23.1 -2.5 19.5 23.8 25.2 26.5 27.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 23.1 23.0 20.9 -2.0 23.0 26.7 23.8 25.1 26.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 24.0 24.2 25.8 -1.8 29.2 32.5 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 12.6 12.2 20.9 -2.6 19.6 23.4 13.4 14.7 15.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 23.8 23.3 24.0 -2.5 19.7 23.9 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 23.9 23.3 21.7 -2.8 17.7 21.7 24.7 25.9 27.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 24.0 23.7 22.8 -2.4 20.0 24.0 24.9 26.3 27.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 23.5 23.5 22.3 -2.1 23.8 27.5 24.3 25.5 26.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 24.2 24.4 22.6 -1.9 25.5 29.0 25.1 26.4 27.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 78 22 0 100 23.5 22.6 22.7 -3.4 14.3 18.7 24.6 25.9 27.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 25.5 25.8 25.8 -1.2 31.5 34.3 25.9 27.2 28.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 24.9 24.9 23.0 -2.0 24.2 27.9 25.7 27.0 28.3 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 23.5 23.3 25.1 -2.3 24.3 27.9 24.2 25.6 26.9 29 Palic 37000G16 82 18 0 100 22.9 22.1 20.3 -3.4 14.0 18.2 24.0 25.3 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 23.7 23.7 25.6 -2.1 26.0 29.7 24.3 25.6 26.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 81 19 0 100 18.3 17.5 18.2 -3.4 14.3 18.2 19.5 20.9 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 24.0 23.6 24.8 -2.5 20.6 24.6 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 23.7 23.5 24.7 -2.5 22.1 25.9 24.5 26.0 27.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 24.0 23.7 24.9 -2.4 22.8 27.0 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 23.2 22.5 22.6 -3.3 15.0 19.4 24.3 25.6 26.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 24.3 24.2 24.2 -1.9 24.8 28.8 24.9 26.3 27.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 24.1 24.3 22.1 -1.7 27.7 30.8 24.7 25.9 27.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 24.0 23.9 24.9 -1.7 27.5 31.3 24.4 25.8 27.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 25.3 25.5 24.2 -1.6 27.6 30.9 25.9 27.1 28.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 83 17 0 100 18.0 17.1 19.3 -3.6 13.1 17.2 19.2 20.6 21.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 24.0 24.2 25.9 -1.8 28.4 31.9 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------