***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2015.-05.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 30.0 30.4 30.0 2.0 76.1 68.7 27.8 28.8 29.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 29.4 30.1 30.5 2.3 78.6 69.7 27.3 28.3 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 29.7 29.9 29.8 1.7 72.0 65.4 27.2 28.3 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 23.1 22.9 27.7 1.2 67.7 63.0 20.0 21.4 22.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 30.5 30.3 27.5 1.1 66.8 62.2 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 27.9 28.7 25.2 1.0 66.5 62.2 26.0 27.4 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 29.4 30.1 30.4 2.3 79.3 70.3 27.1 28.1 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 18.2 18.0 25.7 1.1 67.6 62.6 15.5 16.7 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 30.0 29.8 27.8 1.2 67.6 62.7 27.0 28.4 29.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 29.7 29.4 26.2 1.0 65.7 61.3 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 30.1 29.9 27.0 1.2 68.3 63.0 27.0 28.4 29.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 29.2 29.3 27.0 1.4 71.0 64.9 26.2 27.6 28.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 30.3 30.3 26.3 1.2 68.7 63.6 27.3 28.8 30.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 29.1 29.1 27.4 1.3 68.7 61.9 26.8 27.9 28.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 30.9 30.9 28.6 1.4 71.2 65.5 28.1 29.4 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 31.0 30.9 26.9 1.1 67.8 62.9 27.9 29.3 30.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 28.8 29.4 30.1 2.2 77.9 68.9 26.6 27.6 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 28.9 28.4 25.4 0.9 63.7 59.8 26.0 27.3 28.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 29.0 29.6 30.4 2.2 77.5 68.8 26.8 27.8 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 23.5 23.9 23.2 0.8 62.2 59.2 21.5 23.0 24.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 30.1 30.0 28.9 1.4 69.8 64.2 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 29.4 29.9 29.8 2.1 77.2 68.1 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 29.2 29.7 29.8 2.0 75.7 67.0 26.9 28.0 29.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 29.0 28.8 27.3 1.2 66.9 61.5 26.5 27.7 28.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 30.0 30.2 28.1 1.7 73.2 66.6 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 29.8 29.9 26.6 1.3 70.3 65.1 27.0 28.3 29.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 29.4 29.9 29.1 2.0 76.8 69.1 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 30.9 30.8 28.1 1.2 68.3 63.2 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 21.0 23.5 24.3 0.9 63.0 59.3 21.2 22.5 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 29.3 29.8 30.5 2.2 77.6 69.3 27.1 28.1 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------