***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2015.-12.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 28.5 28.4 29.0 0.8 65.8 62.4 27.2 27.8 28.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 28.3 28.0 29.3 0.8 64.3 61.8 26.6 27.4 28.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 27.7 27.7 28.6 0.3 56.4 55.7 26.6 27.4 28.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 19.4 20.6 26.6 0.2 54.0 54.1 19.6 20.4 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 28.2 27.9 26.5 0.0 49.9 51.3 27.0 27.9 28.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 26.8 26.5 24.1 0.0 50.9 51.0 25.7 26.5 27.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 28.2 28.0 29.3 0.9 65.9 63.0 26.4 27.2 28.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.2 15.8 24.6 0.0 49.5 50.4 15.1 15.9 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 27.8 27.5 26.9 0.0 51.1 52.1 26.5 27.4 28.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 27.6 27.1 25.2 -0.2 46.8 48.6 26.4 27.2 28.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 27.8 27.6 26.0 0.1 51.7 52.4 26.6 27.5 28.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 27.0 26.9 25.9 0.3 56.2 55.5 25.8 26.6 27.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 28.1 28.0 25.4 0.2 54.7 54.3 26.9 27.7 28.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 26.3 27.0 26.2 -0.2 45.7 47.6 26.4 27.2 27.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 29.4 29.0 27.9 0.5 61.2 59.1 27.7 28.5 29.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 28.7 28.5 25.9 0.2 53.4 53.6 27.4 28.3 29.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 27.7 27.3 28.8 0.6 60.4 58.8 26.0 26.8 27.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 26.8 26.0 24.1 -0.4 40.8 43.8 25.6 26.5 27.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 27.8 27.5 29.2 0.7 62.7 60.5 26.1 26.9 27.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 22.5 21.5 22.0 -0.5 38.3 41.7 21.3 22.1 22.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 27.9 27.7 27.9 0.2 54.0 54.0 26.7 27.5 28.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 26.3 27.7 28.4 0.5 58.8 57.4 26.4 27.3 28.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 26.3 27.6 28.6 0.5 59.7 58.1 26.4 27.2 27.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 27.1 26.6 26.2 -0.2 45.2 47.3 26.0 26.8 27.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 28.5 28.1 27.1 0.5 60.6 58.7 26.7 27.6 28.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 27.7 27.6 25.5 0.3 57.0 56.0 26.5 27.3 28.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 28.0 27.8 28.1 0.8 65.9 62.6 26.3 27.1 27.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 27.5 28.8 27.2 0.3 56.3 55.6 27.7 28.5 29.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 22.1 21.2 23.1 -0.6 38.3 41.8 20.9 21.8 22.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 28.1 27.9 29.3 0.8 64.6 62.0 26.4 27.2 27.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------