***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2015.-21.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 21.1 25.3 22.3 139.7 75.3 61.5 5.9 11.4 18.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 18.0 25.4 16.7 120.1 70.5 58.0 7.6 13.8 22.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 26.4 31.5 22.2 137.6 74.7 60.3 5.8 12.6 22.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 23.4 37.8 29.6 176.0 82.4 66.4 5.1 11.1 20.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 24.5 37.5 30.2 170.8 81.6 66.8 5.4 11.5 21.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 22.5 31.1 27.9 159.6 79.9 68.0 6.0 11.6 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 17.6 23.6 16.0 113.9 68.2 56.4 7.0 13.5 21.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 34.1 46.2 32.5 177.1 82.5 73.3 9.4 17.2 27.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 24.8 33.0 29.3 163.3 80.3 67.8 6.8 12.6 20.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 36.4 49.7 34.7 178.5 82.7 72.6 9.8 18.1 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 23.4 36.5 29.7 193.3 84.8 71.5 5.6 11.0 18.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 17.2 24.6 26.8 177.4 82.5 71.5 4.5 8.5 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 19.9 29.0 27.5 169.3 81.4 69.4 4.8 9.7 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 36.0 49.7 31.4 178.4 82.9 70.7 12.0 20.2 30.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 9.8 21.7 25.5 157.2 79.6 62.4 3.3 7.0 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 18.7 28.0 28.1 179.6 83.5 69.2 5.4 10.0 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.3 15.1 14.8 111.9 68.0 56.6 4.7 8.6 14.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 26.7 36.4 36.9 183.2 84.0 74.5 7.7 13.6 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 18.8 29.4 18.1 126.5 72.2 58.9 6.8 13.7 23.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 26.2 36.5 36.3 182.2 84.1 75.8 7.4 13.3 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 21.8 28.1 26.6 162.7 80.1 65.5 6.7 11.8 18.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 13.4 17.8 15.6 115.6 68.7 55.7 5.3 10.1 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 14.5 26.1 21.1 142.6 75.9 61.5 5.6 11.1 18.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 37.6 51.2 31.3 173.7 82.3 70.3 11.9 20.7 32.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 24.3 30.7 27.7 148.8 77.4 62.8 6.8 12.9 21.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 19.7 21.4 22.0 134.5 73.6 60.9 4.4 9.3 16.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 26.1 30.4 24.3 137.2 74.6 61.5 8.4 14.8 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 17.8 26.4 27.5 169.8 81.7 64.9 5.0 9.6 15.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 36.4 53.3 37.6 196.4 86.1 77.4 8.9 16.7 27.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 17.1 25.3 18.3 124.3 71.5 57.8 6.7 12.9 21.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------