***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2015.-05.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 5.5 12.6 8.3 73.0 55.1 34.9 6.1 10.9 17.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 5.0 12.3 9.4 74.6 56.7 38.6 5.5 10.0 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 4.0 9.5 8.7 70.7 55.0 36.0 4.5 8.1 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 3.9 7.5 8.5 64.6 51.1 38.3 3.4 7.4 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.9 7.6 9.2 63.9 52.2 37.5 3.6 7.1 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 3.2 6.7 10.8 58.9 47.0 33.4 3.8 7.5 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 4.2 11.1 9.5 76.3 57.0 38.6 4.4 8.7 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 6.8 16.3 11.0 70.8 53.5 38.3 7.3 14.5 24.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.2 6.9 10.2 67.7 54.9 36.8 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 7.2 13.7 11.7 68.8 53.7 38.4 7.3 12.3 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 3.9 7.2 6.8 55.7 47.9 32.6 4.1 7.8 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 4.3 9.4 7.3 59.6 49.1 33.0 5.4 9.6 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 2.5 5.3 8.7 61.8 49.8 33.9 2.9 5.4 8.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 6.7 13.1 11.0 60.7 50.5 35.9 6.6 12.9 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.8 7.6 6.8 67.6 53.7 37.9 2.4 6.4 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 2.7 5.4 7.2 57.5 48.3 33.6 2.6 5.8 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 3.4 9.8 8.9 67.1 54.1 35.2 3.8 8.4 15.5 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 6.2 13.1 14.1 72.5 53.6 39.6 6.2 11.7 19.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 3.8 10.7 9.2 72.8 56.3 37.3 4.4 8.6 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 7.1 17.7 16.4 91.9 60.2 43.9 7.7 13.3 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 4.2 9.8 8.3 64.1 53.5 33.8 4.2 8.6 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 3.7 8.7 8.5 60.4 50.1 32.5 4.5 8.7 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 4.1 11.2 9.1 67.8 54.6 35.0 4.8 9.6 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 5.7 12.0 11.2 66.0 52.5 37.4 5.6 11.0 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 4.1 8.5 9.5 66.5 52.5 36.6 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.1 5.6 6.1 59.5 47.6 34.4 3.4 6.1 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 6.5 13.7 9.7 71.3 54.0 35.6 7.0 12.1 18.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.9 6.2 7.5 65.1 51.8 37.2 2.5 5.7 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 7.6 17.7 13.9 76.5 54.5 40.8 7.7 15.1 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 6.1 13.8 9.3 75.9 56.6 38.2 6.8 11.5 17.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------