***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.07.2015.-12.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 77 23 0 100 2.4 4.9 2.6 42.0 40.2 24.0 3.1 7.4 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 2.9 6.8 4.2 60.0 49.9 31.1 3.2 6.8 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 3.8 5.6 2.4 36.2 36.9 23.8 4.6 10.0 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 3.8 8.1 3.5 47.0 45.5 27.9 4.8 9.6 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 3.6 6.9 3.3 41.4 43.1 27.7 4.4 8.9 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 4.1 9.3 6.4 64.0 55.7 36.8 4.3 7.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 3.0 7.9 4.7 67.5 53.3 32.9 3.4 7.0 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 8.7 11.6 4.1 35.6 37.5 27.7 10.1 16.7 25.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 3.9 6.5 3.0 33.7 38.8 25.0 5.0 10.4 18.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 5.5 8.2 3.8 32.6 37.1 26.5 6.9 13.2 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 3.9 6.3 2.6 36.0 38.5 24.8 5.0 9.4 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 4.1 5.9 2.5 34.2 36.9 24.6 5.1 10.0 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 3.5 6.5 3.4 46.9 46.3 30.1 4.0 7.4 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 6.5 11.0 5.1 45.2 44.9 30.7 7.2 13.1 21.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 2.0 4.8 3.1 49.6 47.2 27.5 2.7 5.4 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 4.3 7.1 3.0 43.1 44.2 29.5 5.0 8.4 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 1.9 5.2 4.8 70.6 54.3 33.8 2.3 4.5 7.7 29 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 7.4 10.4 5.2 35.8 38.7 29.7 8.6 14.2 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 3.6 7.3 3.5 50.3 45.1 28.7 4.1 8.8 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 7.2 11.2 7.0 46.4 42.9 34.0 8.1 13.6 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 3.5 5.5 2.2 31.5 35.4 22.1 4.9 9.6 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 3.6 9.6 4.4 64.1 51.7 33.8 4.5 9.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 3.7 6.2 2.9 39.4 40.6 26.3 4.5 8.5 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 5.7 8.3 4.2 38.3 39.9 28.4 6.3 12.0 19.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 3.3 6.0 3.0 39.7 40.4 25.4 4.2 9.1 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 2.5 5.9 3.2 61.7 50.5 32.0 3.0 5.8 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 3.5 6.7 3.3 43.5 41.8 25.9 4.6 9.2 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 2.5 6.1 3.3 46.3 46.4 28.3 3.3 6.9 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 11.8 16.0 6.0 40.6 41.7 31.9 12.8 19.6 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 2.6 5.8 3.7 53.8 46.4 28.6 3.0 6.7 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------