***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2015.-12.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 37.4 62.1 41.9 95.7 58.3 48.3 37.7 53.6 71.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 43.6 61.4 39.6 88.4 53.7 44.7 46.0 58.6 72.2 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 44.8 70.4 42.9 93.1 55.8 47.0 45.9 63.7 84.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 39.0 74.0 55.0 112.9 66.0 55.4 39.0 54.9 74.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 63.5 70.7 56.5 109.0 64.4 54.4 39.8 55.4 72.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 51.1 53.6 66.1 104.5 61.2 53.7 32.2 44.4 58.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 39.7 58.5 39.0 87.0 52.7 44.4 41.9 56.0 72.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 90.6 103.1 66.1 111.0 64.8 57.7 61.2 81.7 105.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 61.0 66.0 56.3 104.1 62.2 52.6 39.1 53.5 70.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 83.7 92.8 68.4 108.1 63.7 55.8 56.8 75.3 96.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 56.2 68.6 52.2 117.1 67.9 58.5 36.9 50.4 66.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 52.4 63.0 49.8 112.1 65.3 57.1 31.8 46.4 64.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 43.3 50.2 55.2 110.7 64.8 56.2 26.1 37.7 51.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 61.3 93.9 62.0 99.6 59.5 50.5 62.8 82.1 103.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 43.3 49.4 46.9 110.3 64.7 53.7 22.1 35.1 51.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 44.7 52.1 52.1 112.6 65.8 56.6 28.6 39.6 52.3 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 33.7 48.0 37.1 83.3 51.3 43.9 34.7 46.9 60.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 74.4 80.6 77.5 107.0 62.7 54.6 50.7 66.9 84.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 42.5 65.0 40.3 89.8 54.2 44.8 45.7 61.1 78.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 70.7 82.5 84.6 116.3 67.7 60.0 50.4 64.7 80.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 65.6 69.2 47.3 101.1 60.9 51.2 40.9 56.9 75.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 38.6 53.3 37.8 81.3 49.2 41.8 40.0 54.0 70.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 47.2 68.3 43.4 92.4 55.8 46.1 51.5 63.8 77.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 58.8 94.2 62.0 101.4 60.2 51.6 59.0 80.0 103.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 40.5 62.9 52.0 97.4 57.2 47.7 41.6 56.1 72.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 43.2 47.7 44.0 107.7 62.7 55.5 25.7 37.3 51.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 43.5 67.0 47.9 92.2 54.9 46.4 44.9 61.3 80.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 45.4 51.9 51.6 112.1 65.7 55.1 27.4 38.9 52.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 97.2 111.8 79.4 113.7 66.2 58.0 67.0 88.2 111.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 46.8 64.4 40.6 90.3 54.3 45.0 48.9 61.2 74.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------