***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2020.-21.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 94 6 100 14.6 14.5 17.1 0.0 50.2 50.2 13.8 14.5 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 96 4 100 14.1 13.9 17.0 -0.1 48.5 48.6 13.0 14.0 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 93 7 100 15.9 15.6 17.1 -0.2 46.5 46.6 14.9 15.8 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 96 4 100 11.0 11.1 14.7 0.1 53.2 53.1 9.9 10.9 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 93 7 100 12.8 12.6 15.1 -0.1 48.4 48.5 11.8 12.7 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 12.0 11.9 12.4 0.1 52.9 52.7 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 94 6 100 14.3 14.1 17.0 0.0 49.5 49.5 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 6.9 5.5 11.7 -0.7 34.0 35.5 5.4 6.5 7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 14.0 14.1 15.5 0.2 54.0 53.7 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 14.0 13.5 13.1 -0.3 44.1 44.8 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 13.9 13.4 14.6 -0.3 42.9 43.6 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 10.6 10.7 12.7 -0.9 31.7 33.0 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 13.4 13.0 13.6 -0.1 46.8 47.0 12.3 13.2 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 14.6 14.6 15.1 0.1 53.1 52.7 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 93 7 100 15.2 15.6 16.9 0.4 59.9 59.4 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 14.3 13.7 14.1 -0.3 42.8 43.2 13.1 14.1 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 94 6 100 14.6 14.5 16.8 0.0 50.0 50.0 13.6 14.5 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 12.6 12.0 12.4 -0.3 42.7 43.3 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 94 6 100 14.2 14.0 17.0 -0.2 47.0 47.1 13.3 14.1 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.5 7.3 10.1 -0.8 33.5 34.9 7.3 8.2 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 93 7 100 13.9 13.9 16.6 0.1 52.2 52.1 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 96 4 100 13.8 13.7 17.0 0.0 49.9 49.9 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 90 10 100 13.7 13.3 16.7 -0.3 44.7 44.9 12.7 13.6 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 14.2 14.0 15.1 0.0 50.9 50.9 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 93 7 100 13.7 13.5 16.1 0.0 49.4 49.4 12.6 13.6 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 12.9 12.3 12.3 -0.3 42.8 43.3 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 95 5 100 13.5 13.5 16.6 0.1 51.9 51.8 12.5 13.4 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 93 7 100 12.9 13.0 15.3 0.2 54.3 54.1 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 11.1 9.9 11.4 -0.6 36.6 37.9 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 95 5 100 14.3 14.1 17.2 -0.1 47.7 47.8 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------