***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.06.2020.-05.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 15.9 16.2 18.2 0.6 61.8 59.1 15.1 15.7 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 15.5 15.7 18.0 0.5 59.0 57.0 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 17.5 17.8 18.4 0.6 60.7 58.1 16.4 17.3 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 13.0 13.4 15.6 0.6 62.3 59.4 11.7 12.7 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 14.5 14.7 15.5 0.5 59.7 57.3 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 13.4 13.8 13.8 0.7 65.4 61.7 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 15.8 16.0 18.1 0.5 58.8 56.8 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 8.6 8.9 13.4 0.6 61.9 59.2 7.5 8.3 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 15.5 15.8 15.7 0.6 62.0 59.0 14.4 15.3 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 15.3 15.7 14.3 0.7 63.7 60.5 14.3 15.0 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 15.3 15.4 15.0 0.4 58.0 56.0 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 13.2 13.4 14.2 0.4 58.8 56.6 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 14.8 14.9 13.5 0.4 58.7 56.3 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 16.0 16.3 15.8 0.6 62.9 59.9 15.0 15.7 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 16.5 16.9 17.2 0.7 63.4 60.3 15.5 16.3 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 15.8 15.9 14.4 0.4 58.1 55.9 14.6 15.5 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 16.2 16.4 17.8 0.5 59.1 57.3 15.2 16.0 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 14.0 14.5 13.5 0.7 66.0 62.3 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 15.6 15.8 18.1 0.5 59.3 57.2 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 9.9 10.4 11.2 0.7 65.5 62.0 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 15.3 15.7 17.2 0.6 61.5 58.7 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 15.2 15.5 17.8 0.7 61.6 59.4 14.1 15.0 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 15.1 15.2 17.9 0.5 58.9 56.6 14.1 14.8 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 15.6 16.1 15.6 0.7 63.9 60.4 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 15.3 15.6 16.5 0.6 61.8 59.1 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 14.5 14.8 13.6 0.6 63.2 60.0 13.5 14.2 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 15.3 15.7 17.4 0.7 62.9 59.9 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 14.5 14.8 16.0 0.6 61.8 58.9 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 12.5 13.0 12.8 0.7 64.6 61.2 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 15.9 16.1 18.2 0.5 59.4 57.2 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------