***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.06.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.06.2020.-12.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 15.2 15.3 17.7 0.3 57.6 55.4 14.8 15.1 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 14.9 15.0 17.6 0.2 55.7 54.2 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 16.8 16.8 17.9 0.2 54.9 53.3 16.0 16.6 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 12.0 12.3 15.2 0.3 60.7 58.4 11.2 11.9 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 13.6 13.6 15.3 0.1 54.2 52.8 12.9 13.4 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 12.6 12.7 13.2 0.3 61.4 58.1 11.9 12.4 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 15.1 15.2 17.6 0.2 56.8 55.0 14.4 15.0 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 7.7 7.5 12.8 0.0 49.5 48.6 7.0 7.5 8.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 14.8 14.9 15.6 0.3 59.2 57.0 14.1 14.6 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 14.6 14.7 13.8 0.2 56.6 54.7 14.0 14.5 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 14.6 14.4 14.9 0.0 49.8 48.9 13.9 14.4 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 12.5 12.2 13.7 -0.2 44.4 44.2 11.8 12.3 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 14.0 13.9 13.5 0.0 51.7 50.5 13.3 13.8 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 15.4 15.6 15.5 0.3 60.9 58.7 14.6 15.2 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 16.0 16.3 17.0 0.4 64.7 61.8 15.3 15.8 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 15.0 14.8 14.2 0.0 49.3 48.5 14.2 14.8 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 15.5 15.6 17.4 0.2 57.2 55.7 14.8 15.4 15.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 13.2 13.3 13.0 0.2 58.3 56.2 12.5 13.1 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 14.9 14.9 17.6 0.2 54.7 53.3 14.2 14.8 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 9.1 9.0 10.7 0.0 51.4 50.4 8.4 9.0 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 14.6 14.7 16.9 0.2 58.0 55.9 13.9 14.5 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 14.6 14.8 17.5 0.3 59.0 57.3 13.9 14.5 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 14.4 14.4 17.4 0.1 52.8 51.7 13.8 14.3 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 15.0 15.2 15.3 0.3 60.6 58.2 14.1 14.8 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 14.6 14.7 16.3 0.2 56.8 55.0 13.9 14.5 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 13.6 13.6 13.0 0.1 55.0 53.2 13.0 13.4 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 14.5 14.7 17.0 0.3 59.4 57.0 13.7 14.3 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 13.7 13.9 15.7 0.3 60.4 58.0 13.1 13.6 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 11.8 11.8 12.3 0.1 53.8 52.4 11.0 11.6 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 15.2 15.2 17.8 0.2 55.6 53.9 14.5 15.1 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------